000 AXNT20 KNHC 270844 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 27 2024 Corrected Gulf of Mexico forecast Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Long-period NW swell, and rough to very rough seas, continue to propagate through the north central Atlantic Ocean subtropical waters. These conditions are in the wake of a cold front from a few days ago. A surface trough, that is the remnant of that cold front, is along 31N34W 27N40W 24N50W 24N56W 25N62W 23N70W. A reinforcing NW swell of 12 seconds to 16 seconds, and very rough seas to 16 feet, will propagate through the waters that are from 25N northward from 55W eastward, through Thursday. Expect from now until Wednesday night: strong W winds, and rough to very rough seas in NW swell, from 28N northward between 35W and 47W. Expect elsewhere: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NW swell, from 20N northward between 35W and 62W. Expect from Wednesday night until Thursday night: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NW to N swell, from 15N northward between 35W and 57W. An exception is for rough to very rough seas from 26N northward from 44W eastward. The conditions after Thursday night are: winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in subsiding NW to N swell, from 10N northward between 35W and 53W. Please, read the latest high seas forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone close to 08N13W, to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W, to 05N28W 02N39W 02N46W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 07N between 14W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected A stationary front passes through the Florida Panhandle along 85W/86W, into the north central Gulf, to 25N96W. A surface trough continues from 25N96W, beyond 24N at the coast of Mexico. A 1020 mb high pressure center is close to 25N91W. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 25N southward from the Yucatan Channel eastward. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extending from near Apalachicola, Florida to 27N92W and will lift back N as a warm front on Wed. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters Thu morning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf Wed and Wed night ahead of this front, which will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to near Tampico, Mexico early on Fri morning, and from the Straits of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by early Sat morning. The front will exit the basin later on Sat. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Gusty winds with occasional gusts to gale force may occur over the west-central and SW Gulf in the wake of the front on Fri. High pressure in the wake of the wake of the front will shift E through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf near South Texas and NE Mexico. The resulting gradient should bring fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas to those waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure center is close to 12N79W. The low pressure center is along the monsoon trough. One part of the monsoon trough extends from 10N74W in Colombia, to the 1008 mb low pressure center. Another part of the monsoon trough extends from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to beyond the border of Panama and Costa Rica, and beyond 07N90W in the Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the 1008 mb low pressure center to 16N77W. A separate N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 72W/73W, from 16N northward beyond Haiti, to 30N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 360 nm of the 1008 mb low pressure center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal waters of Costa Rica. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the areas that are between Puerto Rico and 80W. Moderate seas span the entire area. Strong NE winds are in the coastal waters of Cuba from 82W eastward; and within 60 nm on either side of 19N80W 18N82W 16N84W. Strong NE to E winds are within 90 nm of the coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are elsewhere from 73W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere from the surface trough/1008 mb low pressure center feature westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 27/0000 UTC, are: 0.36 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between comparatively lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean and high pressure over the SW N Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin through Sat night. Locally strong NE winds are likely in the lee of eastern Cuba through Wed night. The trades are forecast to be at mostly fresh speeds while expanding in coverage across the basin on Sun and Sun night. A large area of numerous thunderstorms accompanied by frequent lightning and gusty winds is moving ESE over the waters from Haiti to 12N and between 72W and 78W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the long-period swell, the sea heights, the wind speeds, and the other features that are affecting the western Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to moderate NE winds are from 18N to 27N between 50W and the 72W/73W Caribbean Sea-to-Atlantic Ocean surface trough. Fresh to moderate easterly winds are from 18N southward between 46W and 60W. Fresh NE winds are from 05N to 12N between 36W and 46W. Fresh westerly winds are from 28N northward between the 31N34W 23N70W surface trough and 52W. Fresh SW winds are from 27N northward between 30W and 38W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Slight to moderate seas are between 70W and the Bahamas. Slight seas are from the Bahamas westward. Moderate to rough seas are from 25N northward from 25W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure continues over the northern waters while a surface trough remains over the southeastern Bahamas. Mostly fresh NE winds are present west of the trough to near 78W. The trough will move westward, reaching the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Wed night, and the NW Bahamas and central Cuba late on Thu before weakening. A cold front is expected to move over the NW part of the area Thu night into Fri. It is forecast to reach from near 31N70W to South Florida by Sat morning, and from near 31N60W to 28N65W, and continues as a stationary front to western Cuba by Sun morning. The cold front portion will then become stationary by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. $$ mt/ja