000 AXNT20 KNHC 280532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Nov 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Long-period NW swell, and rough to very rough seas with periods that range from 13 seconds to 15 seconds, continue to propagate through the north central Atlantic Ocean subtropical waters. These conditions are in the wake of an old frontal boundary, that is along 31N28W 30N30W 27N40W 26N50W. A surface trough is about 200 nm to the south and to the southeast, from 46W eastward. Very rough seas are from 20N northward between 30W and 45W. Rough seas are elsewhere from 13N northward between 20W and 60W. The swell set will continue to shift eastward and gradually subside through Thursday. Please, read the latest high seas forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone close to 07N12W, to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W, to 06N20W 06N29W 04N37W 04N41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 06N between 33W and 46W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge passes through 27N81W in Florida, to 22N95W in the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh southerly winds are within 200 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast states, from the Mississippi/Alabama border westward. Moderate or slower anticyclonic surface winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight to moderate seas are in the coastal waters, from 20N for Mexico, to 90W for Louisiana. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters Thu morning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the western Gulf tonight ahead of this front. The front will shift across the Gulf waters before moving SE of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds to near gale-force may occur W of the front over the western portion of the central Gulf and in the SW Gulf on Fri. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift E through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure center is close to 13.5N75W. The low pressure center is along the monsoon trough, which extends from the low pressure center, beyond Panama along 79W. A surface trough extends from the 1008 mb low pressure center, through SE Cuba, to 26N73W in the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 600 nm to the west of the surface trough from 16N northward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from the surface trough/ monsoon trough eastward. Moderate seas are in most of the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas between the coastal waters of NW Venezuela and N Colombia, and in the coastal waters of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N in the Atlantic Ocean southward between 56W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 28/0000 UTC, are: 0.02 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to fresh trades are expected over most of the basin through Sat night, except for locally strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba until late tonight. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean this weekend, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and higher seas are over the central Caribbean from 14N to 18N between 68W and 72W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the long-period swell, the sea heights, the wind speeds, and the other features that are affecting the central sections of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh NE winds are from 05N to 13N between 30W and 40W; and from 05N to 15N between 40W and 50W. Broad anticyclonic surface winds are from 15N to 23N between 49W and 57W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow, as with an inverted trough, are from 20N to 27N between between 70W and the Straits of Florida. Moderate or slower winds in general are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas in general are from 16N northward from 60W eastward. Moderate seas in general are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Slight seas are from the Bahamas westward. High pressure prevails over the northern waters while a surface trough extends from near 26N73W to the Windward Passage. The trough will move westward, reaching the NW Bahamas and central Cuba late on Thu before weakening. A cold front is expected to move into the NW part of the area Thu night into Fri. The front is forecast to move across the waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 31N59W to central Cuba on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing front may move off the Florida coast early Sun, and merge with the stationary front Mon. $$ mt/ja