000 AXNT20 KNHC 281025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Nov 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W and continues to 07N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N29W to 04N35W and to 04N42W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 35W and 42W, also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W and 21W, between 22W and 25W and between 36W and 42W. Similar convection is W of the ITCZ within 30 nm of line from 05N42W to 04N44W to 05N48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern that generally supports gentle to moderate winds, except for moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf waters from 20N to 26N west of 94W. Slight seas are found throughout, except for a pocket of moderate seas over the SW Gulf from 20N to 22N between 96W and 97W. A cold front over eastern Texas is advancing toward the Gulf. For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf waters this morning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the western Gulf tonight ahead of this front. The front will shift across the Gulf waters before moving SE of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds to near gale-force may occur W of the front over the western portion of the central Gulf and in the SW Gulf on Fri. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift E through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Low pressure of 1008 mb is along the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough near 12N78W. The monsoon trough extends southwestward to across the border between Costa Rica and Panama. A trough extends northward from the low to near 16N77W while another trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba and to western Jamaica. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows moderate to fresh easterly winds from 16N to 19N between 73W and 78W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are in the lee of Cuba between 77W and 80W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, except for light to gentle winds south of 16N between 72W and 81W. Seas across the basin are in the moderate range, except for slight seas between the coastal waters of NW Venezuela and northern Colombia, and in the coastal waters of Honduras. Scattered showers and thunderstorms attendant by locally gusty winds and higher seas are confined over a portion of the central Caribbean that covers from 15N to 18N and between 68W and 77W. Similar activity is also noted in the southwestern portion of the sea south of 11N and west of 75W to southern Costa and northern Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 15N to 18N between 77W and 81W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected over most of the basin through Sat night, except for locally strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba into early this evening. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean this weekend, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. The scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean will continue to shift eastward through Fri while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends from near 25N75W to eastern Cuba, and continues southwestward to western Jamaica. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes reveal moderate to fresh northeast to east winds across the trough, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh trades south of 15N east of 60W, and near a far eastern Atlantic cold front that stretches from near 31N22W to 27N30W and to near 25N44W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm east of the front north of 28N. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the front between 25W and 36W. A trough out ahead of it is analyzed from 31N17W to 25N25W to 23N35W and to 22N47W. Patches of mostly moderate rain are seen from 21N to 30N between the NW coast of Africa and 25W. High pressure is present elsewhere across the area as a 1020 mb high center is analyzed at 29N55W. Rough seas are confined to the eastern part of the domain north of about 14N and east of 54W, with the highest of these seas peaking to 12 ft north of 28N between 26W and 34W. Moderate seas, in general, are observed over the remainder of the area, with for slight seas existing from the Bahamas westward, including the Straits of Florida. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms moving westward is east of the Lesser Antilles from 13N to 17N between 58W and 61W. An upper-level shortwave trough is helping to sustain this activity. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure prevails over the northern waters while a surface trough extends from near 25N75W to eastern Cuba. The trough will move westward, reaching the NW Bahamas and central Cuba this afternoon before weakening. A cold front is expected to move into the NW part of the area tonight into Fri. The front is forecast to move across the waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 31N59W to central Cuba on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing front may move off the Florida coast early Sun, and merge with the stationary front Mon. $$ Aguirre