000
AXNT20 KNHC 281716
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Nov 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough has retreated inland over the African
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to the coast of far northern Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 35W and 47W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Earlier this morning, a cold front emerged off the Texas coast
into the NW Gulf of Mexico. At 1500 UTC, the cold front extends
from near Lafayette, LA to South Padre Island, TX. Fresh to strong
N to NW winds and building seas of 4-6 ft have been observed in 
waters behind the front. Ahead of the front in the rest of the 
Gulf, light to gentle return flow persists with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue across the Gulf 
waters before moving SE of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds 
to near gale-force may occur W of the front over the western 
portion of the central Gulf and in the SW Gulf on Fri. High 
pressure building in the wake of the front will shift E through 
Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The 
resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly 
winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough positioned across Jamaica is producing scattered
moderate convection from 14N to 19N between 72W and 78W. 1008 mb
low pressure is centered in the SW Caribbean along the extension
of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Scatterometer data received a
couple hours ago indicates mainly moderate trades prevail across 
the Caribbean, with locally fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba. 
Seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected 
over most of the basin through Sat night, except for locally 
strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba into early this 
evening. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean this 
weekend, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of
the front toward the end of the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front extends from 31N21W to 21N47W. Satellite
scatterometer data indicates gentle winds near the front. 1022 mb
high pressure centered near 29N56W dominates the western and
central Atlantic waters, allowing mainly moderate trades north of
20N, and moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N. Seas are
4-7 ft in the waters west of 50W, and 8-10 ft in the waters east 
of 50W in decaying N swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front is expected to move into 
the NW part of the area tonight into Fri. The front is forecast to
move across the waters through the weekend before becoming 
stationary from near 31N59W to central Cuba on Sun. Moderate to 
fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing
front may move off the Florida coast early Sun, and merge with 
the stationary front Mon.

$$
Mahoney