000
AXNT20 KNHC 282332
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Nov 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2325 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough has retreated inland over the African
continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to the coast of NE Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed south of 06N and west of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Pensacola, Florida, to NE Tamaulipas. 
Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas of 5-7 ft 
are occurring behind the front. Ahead of the front in the
remainder of the Gulf, light to gentle southerly return flow 
persists with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will shift across
the remainder of the Gulf waters before moving SE of the basin 
this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas 
will follow this front. Winds to near gale- force may occur W of 
the front over the western portion of the central Gulf and in the 
SW Gulf on Fri. High pressure building in the wake of the front 
will shift E through Sun night as a trough develops in the far 
western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh 
to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 
90W into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the southern coast of eastern Cuba
to near 15N80W. Divergence aloft supports scattered to numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection north of 15N and east of
the trough axis to 71W. A 1008 mb low pressure is centered in the
SW Caribbean along the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon 
Trough. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5
ft are present in the eastern and central Caribbean, especially
east of 73W. Similar conditions are found north of 15N in the
rest of the basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
present elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected over most of
the basin through Sat night. A cold front will move into the NW 
Caribbean this weekend, with winds strengthening over these waters
in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front extends from 31N21W to 24N31W, where it becomes a
stationary front to 21N49W. A 1021 mb high pressure centered near
29N52W dominates the western and central Atlantic waters, 
allowing moderate to fresh trade winds between 35W and 65W. Seas 
are 5-8 ft in the waters west of 50W, and 8-11 ft in the waters 
east of 50W in decaying N swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure prevails over the
forecast waters. A cold front will move into the NW part of the 
area tonight into Fri. The front is forecast to move across the 
waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 
31N59W to central Cuba on Sun. Moderate to fresh winds and 
moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing front may move 
off the Florida coast Sun, and merge with the stationary front 
early next week.

$$
Delgado