000 AXNT20 KNHC 290551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Nov 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W, to 05N20W 04N30W 03N40W 03N45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 07N between 32W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Big Bend, to the north central Gulf, beyond the coast of Mexico close to 23N98W. A surface trough is along 30N83W in north Florida, to the south central Gulf, into the SW corner of the area. Strong northerly winds are from 22N northward from 94W westward. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from the cold front northward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to rough seas are from 25N to 27N in the Texas coastal waters. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extending from near Apalachicola, Florida southwestward to 27N93W and inland Mexico just north of Tampico will shift across the remainder of the Gulf waters before moving SE of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds to near gale-force may occur W of the front over the western portion of the central Gulf and in the SW Gulf on Fri. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift E through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low pressure center is close to 11.5N81W in the SW corner of the area. The low pressure center is along the monsoon trough, which extends from the low pressure center, beyond the border of Costa Rica and Panama, into the Pacific Ocean. A surface trough extends from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to Jamaica, and into the Windward Passage. Gentle winds are from 15N southward between 77W and 83W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 15N northward from 80W westward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are in most of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 70W and 19N81W 11N75W; and between 62W and 78W in the Atlantic Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 29/0000 UTC, are: 0.07 in Curacao, and 0.03 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to fresh trades are expected over most of the basin through Sat night. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean this weekend, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating cold front is along 31N22W, to 25N30W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 25N30W, to 22N40W 21N52W. Rough seas are from 05N northward from 60W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is from the ITCZ northward between 37W and 68W; and from the ITCZ to 18N between 25W and 37W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the east and to the southeast of the frontal boundary from 22N northward High pressure prevails over the forecast waters. A cold front just inland the Georgia coast will move into the NW part of the area tonight into Fri. The front is forecast to move across the waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to near the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop along the NE Florida coast Sat night and change little into Sun. A reinforcing cold front may move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, and merge with the stationary front early next week. $$ mt/ja