000 AXNT20 KNHC 291654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Nov 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Tampa Bay, FL to 24N94W to just north of Heroica Veracruz, Mexico. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations indicate fresh to strong NE to N winds prevail north of the cold front, with 4-7 ft seas. In the Gulf waters west of 93W, seas have built to 7-10 ft in near-gale force N winds offshore of Tampico, Mexico. South of the cold front, light and variable winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the basin this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds to near gale-force, or with brief gusts to gale force, may occur W of the front over the western portion of the central Gulf today and in the SW Gulf tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift E through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of 1008 mb low pressures are analyzed in the western Caribbean, along a trough extending from 20N79W to the first low near 16N81W then to the second low near 10N81W. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 19N between 74W and 81W, including across Jamaica. The morning's scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally fresh trades in the south central Caribbean near the mouth of the Gulf of Venezuela. In the western Caribbean, N winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 3-5 ft across the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected over most of the basin through Sat night. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean this weekend, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will then cover the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two surface troughs are analyzed across the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, producing a few showers. A cold front is creeping into the far NW waters, off the coast of N Florida. Surface observations indicate moderate NW winds are following the front. The Atlantic is dominated by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N49W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, increasing to 8-9 ft in the far eastern Atlantic between Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front just offshore the NE Florida coast is forecast to move across the waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to near the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop along the NE Florida coast Sat night and into Sun. A reinforcing cold front may move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, and merge with the stationary front early next week. $$ Mahoney