000 AXNT20 KNHC 292340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Gale-force N winds are occurring in the western Gulf of Mexico offshore of Tampico this evening behind a strong cold front approaching the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 10 to 12 ft will occur near the area of strongest winds. Winds will slowly diminish through Sat morning, and seas will subside through the day. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 11N between 23W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on gale-force winds that are occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. At 1800 UTC, a cold front extends from west-central Florida near 27N82W to north of Veracruz, Mexico, near 20N97W. Fresh to strong NE to N winds prevail north of the cold front, with 4 to 7 ft seas. In the Gulf waters west of 93W, seas have built to 8 to 11 ft in gale-force N winds offshore of Tampico, Mexico. South of the cold front, light and variable winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a cold front extending from Central Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico will move SE of the basin this weekend. Gale-force winds off the coast near Tampico, Mexico will diminish through this evening. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow this front. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift E through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong E winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. A cold front moving off the southeastern United States early next week will promote fresh to strong NE winds and locally rough seas across much of the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb low has been analyzed in the western Caribbean near 16N82W, and a 1008 mb low is near 12N81W with a trough extending northward toward southeastern Cuba. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring in the central Caribbean south of Cuba and near Jamaica and Haiti. Moderate N to NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean near the areas of low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally fresh trades in the south- central Caribbean near the mouth of the Gulf of Venezuela. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected over most of the basin through Sat night. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean this weekend, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will then cover the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has been analyzed from 31N76W southwestward through central Florida. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring behind the front. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 31N50W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge north of 20N, and moderate to fresh E trades are occurring south of 20N. Seas are 4 to 8 ft in open waters, increasing to 8 to 9 ft in the far eastern Atlantic between Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front along the central Florida coast is forecast to move across the waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 31N65 southwestward into the central Bahamas on Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop along the NE Florida coast Sat night and into Sun. A reinforcing cold front may move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, and merge with the stationary front early next week. Elsewhere, fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail across the central Atlantic through at least the middle of next week. $$ ADAMS