000
AXNT20 KNHC 300539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and
continues westward to 06N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N14W
to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to
06N between the west coast of Africa and 16W, as well as from 04N
to 11N between 22W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Naples, FL to near Veracruz, 
Mexico. Fresh to strong NE to N winds prevail north of the cold 
front, with 6 to 8 ft seas. In the Gulf waters west of 93W, seas 
have built to 8 to 11 ft in near-gale-force N winds offshore of 
Tampico, Mexico. South of the cold front, light and variable winds
and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from southwest Florida 
to 23N93W and to Veracruz, Mexico will stall from the Straits of 
Florida to the SW Gulf on Sat and weaken. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds to
near gale-force, or with brief gusts to gale force, may occur W 
of the front over the SW Gulf tonight. High pressure building in 
the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a 
trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure 
gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building 
seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week while at the 
same time winds increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into
the middle of next week, with the passage of a stronger cold 
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low has been analyzed in the western Caribbean near 
16N82W, and a 1008 mb low is near 12N81W with a trough extending 
northward toward central Cuba. Scattered moderate to locally 
strong convection is occurring in the central Caribbean south of 
18N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail in 
the NW Caribbean near the areas of low pressure. Elsewhere, 
moderate E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the central 
and eastern Caribbean, with locally fresh trades in the
southeastern Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected over most
of the basin through Sat night. A cold front will move into the 
NW Caribbean on Sat, with winds strengthening over these waters in
the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to 
strong winds will then cover the majority of the basin going into 
the middle of next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has been analyzed from 31N75W southwestward through 
SE Florida. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring behind
the front. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1027 mb high 
pressure centered near 34N44W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic 
winds are occurring north of 20N, and moderate to fresh E trades 
are occurring south of 20N. Seas are 4 to 8 ft in open waters, 
increasing to 8 to 9 ft in the far eastern Atlantic between Cabo 
Verde and the Canary Islands, as well as across areas from 04N 
and 23N between 32W and 55W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N74W to 
the NW Bahamas and to South Florida is forecast to move across the
waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 
31N58W to 26N65W to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to
fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal 
trough is expected to develop along the NE Florida coast late Sat 
into Sun, then weaken late on Sun as its shifts E. A reinforcing 
cold front may move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, 
followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge 
with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is 
expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage the 
middle of next week. 

$$
Adams