685 AXNT20 KNHC 301051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 06N11W and continues westward to 05N24W to 05N35W to 04N45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 08W and 16W, and within 120 north of the ITCZ between 23W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W and 37W, also between 39W and 45W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 29W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N90W and to inland Mexico just south of Veracruz. Overnight ASCAT satellite data indicates that fresh to strong NE winds continue north of the cold front, except for strong to near gale NW to N winds off Veracruz. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft, except for 9 to 11 ft seas off Veracruz. The ASCAT satellite data and buoy observations show light to gentle winds NE winds south of the cold front, except for light and variable winds south of the front to 21N between 90W and 95W. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will stall from the Straits of Florida to the SW Gulf today and begin to weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will exist behind the front. Winds to near gale-force in the SW Gulf will gradually diminish through early this evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week, and while at the same time winds increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week, with the passage of a stronger cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low is analyzed in the western Caribbean near 12N81W. This position is along the eastern part of the E Pacific monsoon trough that protrudes into the southwestern Caribbean. An upper- level anticyclone is situated over the low. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean south of 18N and between 76W and the coast of Central America. Overnight ASCAT satellite data reveals moderate to fresh trades in the basin, except for light and variable winds in the extreme southwestern portion south of about 12N between 76W and 82W. Seas in the basin are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 18N W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, also from 15N to 18N between 64W and 85W and north of 18N W of 80W, including waters in the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the southeastern part of the sea south of 13N between 62W and 64W. This activity is moving westward with the trade wind flow. Recent surface observations from Grenada note this activity. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will be over the basin through this afternoon. A cold front presently over the southern Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwestern Caribbean this afternoon, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will then cover the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 31N70W southwestward to the NW Bahamas and to the Florida Keys. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N67W to 25N75W and to 23N78W. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm east of the trough north of 24N. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of 28N and between 61W and 65W, and from 22N to 28N between 57W and 65W. To the east of the front, an area of fresh to strong S winds is evident north of 27N between 56W and 64W. Seas with these winds are peaking to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1027 mb high pressure that is centered well north of the area near 34N42W. The tail-end of a dissipating cold front reaches southwestward from east of the Azores to near 31N35W. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the front near 31N, and no significant weather is associated with it. Otherwise, moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are occurring north of 20N while moderate to fresh trades are occurring south of 20N. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft in open waters, increasing to 8 to 9 ft in the far eastern Atlantic between Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands, as well as across areas from 04N and 23N between 32W and 55W. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough will develop along the NE Florida coast today, then weaken late on Sun as its shifts E. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle of the upcoming week. $$ Aguirre