538 AXNT20 KNHC 301719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to the coast of far NE Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 22W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 1017 mb low pressure near 20N95W to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Surface observations and satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the front, with 4-7 ft seas. In the W Bay of Campeche, NW winds are fresh to strong with 7-9 ft seas. While wind speeds south of the front are light to gentle, seas are also 4-7 ft in these waters. For the forecast, eastern portions of the stationary front may shift into the NW Caribbean later today or tonight while western sections of the stationary front weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the front will gradually diminish through early this evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. Winds will increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough analyzed in the NW Caribbean is currently producing some showers and tstorms. Another surface trough is analyze across the eastern Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, NE winds are also gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, with highest seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia in an area of locally fresh trades. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail over the basin through this afternoon. A cold front presently over the southern Gulf of Mexico may enter the NW Caribbean later this afternoon or tonight, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will then expand in coverage over the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W to the Straits of Florida. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the front, extending from 31N63W to 26N70W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N to 30N between 58W and 67W. Gentle to moderate N winds are west of the front, and moderate to fresh SE winds are along northern sections of the front and pre-frontal trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by 1030 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern Atlantic increase to moderate to fresh speeds west of 35W, before diminishing to light to gentle speeds west of 65W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, with seas to 8 ft possible locally within patches of fresh winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough will develop along the NE Florida coast today, then weaken late on Sun as its shifts E. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle of the upcoming week. $$ Mahoney