000 AXNT20 KNHC 302345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Dec 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to the coast of far NE Brazil near 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 07N between 17W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1800 UTC, a 1018 mb low is centered near 22N96W and a stationary front extends from the low toward the east to 23N86W, with a cold front farther east into northern Cuba. Fresh NE winds are occurring to the north of these fronts, with moderate E to NE winds covering northern portions of the basin. A cold front also extends southward from the low pressure towards Veracruz, Mexico, and fresh NW winds are noted behind this front. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring along and ahead of the front, with seas of 3 to 6 ft in the central and northern Gulf. For the forecast, the cold fronts and stationary fronts will gradually dissipate through Sun. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the front will gradually diminish through tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong E winds and building seas over the waters west of 90W into early next week. Winds will increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough analyzed in the NW Caribbean is currently producing some showers and thunderstorms. Another surface trough is present across central Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong E winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean off the NW coast of Venezuela and Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, NE winds are also gentle to moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the basin, with highest seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the basin through Sun, and locally strong E winds will pulse in the south-central Carribbean. Winds will strengthen over the NW waters Sun. The fresh to strong winds will then expand in coverage over the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N65W to the central Bahamas and into northwest Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the front, extending from 31N61W to 25N69W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 24N to 30N between 55W and 67W. Gentle to moderate N winds are west of the front, and moderate to fresh SE winds are along northern sections of the front and pre-frontal trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern Atlantic increase to moderate to fresh speeds west of 30W, before diminishing to light to gentle speeds west of 65W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, with seas to 8 ft possible locally within patches of fresh winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast Sun night, followed by fresh NW to N winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle of the upcoming week. $$ ADAMS