000 AXNT20 KNHC 011044 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Dec 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 06N30W and to 04N45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 07N between 13W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient induced by high pressure of 1025 mb that is centered over the southeastern United States is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds south of 26N, and gentle to moderate northeast to east winds north of 26N. Both overnight altimeter satellite data passes and recent buoy observations indicate seas in the 3 to 5 ft range throughout, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the southeastern and central Gulf areas. For the forecast, high pressure building in over the area will shift eastward through tonight as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the southern U.S. will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. Along with these conditions, unsettled weather is expected in the western Gulf during the early to middle part of the week. Winds will increase over the remainder of the Gulf Mon through Wed, then diminish afterward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are confined to the south of 18N between 80W and the coast of Central America. This activity contains frequent lightning and gusty winds. It remains quite active due to the presence of a surface trough that is located in the western Caribbean, as well as the presence of the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that protrudes into the southwestern portion of the basin. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the eastern, central, and southwestern portions of the basin. Fresh to locally strong trades are present in the south-central Caribbean off the northwest coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh northeast winds have develop in the northwestern part of the sea as highlighted in an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas are in the range of 4 to 6 ft across the basin, with higher seas of 6 to 8 ft from 11N to 15N between 72W and 80W. For the forecast, the fresh northeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean will reach up to strong speeds today. These winds will then expand in coverage over the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. The convective activity in the southwestern Caribbean is likely to continue into Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N63W to 26N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to central Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the front. It extends from 30N60W to 26N67W and to 21N73W. A broad upper-level trough is located to the W of these features. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection north of 26N between 55W and the surface trough. This activity is under a favorable diffluent flow pattern helping to sustain it. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes generally reveal gentle to moderate north to northeast winds to the north and west of the the front, and gentle to moderate SE winds are along northern sections of the front and pre-frontal trough. A pocket of moderate to fresh trades is located off the Florida coast from 26N to 29N between 71W and 77W. The remainder of the Atlantic weather pattern is being influenced by strong high pressure of 1031 mb centered to the southwest of the Azores. Gentle to moderate trades are over the far eastern Atlantic. The trades increase to moderate to fresh speeds west of 25W, except they weaken to light to gentle speeds west of 60W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the open waters, with seas to 8 ft possible with some of the fresh trades. For the forecast W of 55W, the previously mentioned cold front will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing cold front will push southward into the NW part of the area late tonight, followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle part of the upcoming week before stalling and weakening from near 28N55W to 24N63W and to near the northwest side of Haiti Thu and Thu night. Another cold front may approach the waters east of NE Florida Thu night preceded by fresh to strong winds. $$ Aguirre