262 
AXNT20 KNHC 012327
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is east of the Prime Meridian in the Gulf of
Guinea. The ITCZ extends from 04N at the Prime Meridian to the
coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 04N to 09N between 22W and 37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough has been analyzed from 21N96W to 27N94W, and moderate to
locally fresh NE winds are occurring to the north. Elsewhere, an
increasing pressure gradient between ridging over the southeastern
United States and northern Gulf, and a trough in the northwestern
Caribbean is leading to moderate to fresh NE to E winds across
southern and eastern portions of the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft south
of 26N, including within the Yucatán Channel, and 2-4 ft north of
26N.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a trough over the
western Gulf and high pressure over the southern U.S. will 
support fresh to occasionally strong E winds and building seas 
over the waters W of 90W into early this week. Winds will increase
over the remainder of the Gulf Mon through Wed, then diminish 
afterward. Along with these conditions, unsettled weather is 
expected in the western Gulf during the early to middle part of 
the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from southeastern Cuba to 17N85W off the
coast of Honduras. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 
5-8 ft are analyzed in the NW Caribbean west of the surface 
trough, including within the Yucatán Channel. Moderate to fresh 
trades prevail elsewhere across the basin with 4-7 ft seas. Strong
trades are impacting the south-central Caribbean off the coast of
Colombia and northwestern Venezuela. Moderate to strong 
convection associated with the eastern extent of the Pacific 
monsoon trough is occurring south of 14N and west of 78W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection near the surface trough in
the NW Caribbean is noted south of 18N and west of 84W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will occur in the NW 
Caribbean tonight. These winds will then expand in coverage over 
the majority of the basin going into the middle of the week as 
strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N59W to southeastern Cuba. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 NM ahead of the front north of 
25N. Two weak surface troughs are along the central Bahamas and 
off the coast of Florida. The Atlantic is dominated by 1032 mb 
high pressure centered SW of the Azores. Moderate to fresh 
anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin east of 55W, with 
gentle to moderate winds west of 55W. Seas are 4-7 ft across open
waters. Seas may locally peak to 8 ft in the highest winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
become stationary tonight. A reinforcing cold front will push 
southward into the NW part of the area late tonight. The 
reinforcing front will then merge with the stationary front early 
this week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W 
to the Windward Passage during the middle part of the week before 
stalling and weakening from near 28N55W to 24N63W and to near NW 
Haiti Thu and Thu night. Another cold front may approach the 
waters east of NE Florida Thu night preceded by fresh to strong 
winds. 

$$
ADAMS