131 AXNT20 KNHC 021715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 06N16W. The ITCZ continues westward to 04N30W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 09N between 20W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1018 mb low pressure is analyzed near 23N94.5W based on visible satellite imagery. A trough extends from the low center to the central Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near these features. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf region, including Florida, bringing dry conditions and cold temperatures. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong N winds across the offshore waters of South Florida and also in the Straits of Florida where seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range. Similar winds speeds are noted to the N and E of low pressure center due to the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the SE of the United States. Seas are 6 to 7 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh winds are observed elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure building in over the SE United States will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the S Gulf through tomorrow night. Fresh to strong SE return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Wed night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach the N Gulf coast Thu night, but will have only moderate NE winds associated with it. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and thunderstorms continue to flare-up over the SW Caribbean. Abundant tropical moisture combined with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is helping to induce this convective activity. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate the NW Caribbean under the influence of a ridge. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the NE and the Colombian low is leading to fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Fresh trades are also noted just E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with the strongest winds and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Ongoing cold air advection due to strong northerly flow over South Florida helped temperature to fall this morning to 52 degrees Fahrenheit (11 degrees Celsius) in Indio Hatuey, Matanzas, Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean will expand in coverage and intensity tonight and Tue. As the pressure gradient tightens between lower pressure over South America and the building Bermuda High to the north, these winds will occur over most of the central and W basin through Thu. The Windward Passage will experience direct impacts from fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas from Tue night through Thu morning. East of the Lesser Antilles, tradewind-induced swell will bring 8 to 10 ft seas through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from from 31N56W to 26N71W. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong N winds within about 120 nm in the wake of the front between 65W and 71W. A surface trough extends 26N71W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Light winds and a few showers are related to the trough. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1032 mb high pressure centered SW of The Azores near 34N35W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds S of 25N and E of 60W, leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft. A surface trough is close to the NW African coast, and runs from 30N14W to 19N18W. Satellite derived wind data captured the wind shift associated with the trough axis. Elsewhere, winds and seas are generally moderate. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing cold front tonight, and the merged front will move slowly eastward, eventually coming stationary over the far SE waters late this week. Behind the front, strong NE winds will impact waters north of Hispaniola and Cuba, including waters around the Bahamas and Florida Straits through Thu morning. Another cold front is likely to push off the SE United States coast Thu night, possibly bringing some strong winds toward 30N on both sides of it by the end of the week. $$ GR