000 AXNT20 KNHC 022338 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Dec 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 05N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 06N16W. The ITCZ continues westward to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 09N between 22W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough has been analyzed in the western Gulf of Mexico, and locally fresh NE winds are occurring along the northern periphery of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring across south- central and southeastern portions of the basin, where seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft are occurring in north-central and northeastern portions of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, high pressure building in over the SE United States will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the S Gulf through tomorrow night. Fresh to strong SE return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Wed night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach the N Gulf coast Thu afternoon, but will have only moderate to fresh NE winds associated with it. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally strong convection is noted along the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate the NW Caribbean under the influence of a ridge. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the NE of the area and the Colombian low is leading to fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Fresh trades are also noted just E of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with the strongest winds and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean will expand in coverage and intensity tonight and Tue. As the pressure gradient tightens between lower pressure over South America and the building Bermuda High to the north, these winds will occur over most of the central and W basin through Thu. The Windward Passage will experience direct impacts from fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas from Tue night through Thu afternoon. East of the Lesser Antilles, trade wind-induced swell will bring 8 to 10 ft seas through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from from 31N61W to 26N71W, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong N winds are occurring within about 120 NM in the wake of the front. A surface trough extends from 26N71W to northwestern Haiti. Light winds and a few showers are related to the trough. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1032 mb high pressure centered SW of The Azores near 36N35W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds S of 25N and E of 60W, leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, winds and seas are generally moderate. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front is stalling. This front will be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing cold front tonight, and the merged front will move slowly eastward, eventually coming stationary over the far SE waters late this week. Behind the front, strong NE winds will impact waters north of Hispaniola and Cuba, including waters around the Bahamas and Florida Straits through Thu morning. Another cold front is likely to push off the SE United States coast Thu night, possibly bringing some strong winds toward 30N on both sides of it Thu morning into Fri morning. $$ ADAMS