346 AXNT20 KNHC 030550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 05N13W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 06N between the west coast of Africa and 14W, as well as from the Equator to 09N between 18W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A trough has been analyzed in the western Gulf of Mexico, with scattered showers occurring near the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf region. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are occurring across much of the basin along with moderate seas, except for the far NE Gulf as well as the Bay of Campeche where moderate to fresh E to NE winds and slight seas are observed. For the forecast, High pressure building in over the SE United States will maintain fresh to strong NE to E winds over the S Gulf through tomorrow night. Fresh to strong SE return flow will set up in the western Gulf late Tue through Wed night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu afternoon, but will have only moderate to fresh NE winds associated with it. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally strong convection is noted along the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough in the southern Caribbean, generally south of 16N and west of 73W. Fresh to strong NE winds dominate the NW Caribbean and the northern Caribbean Passages under the influence of a ridge. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the NE of the area and the Colombian low is leading to fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with the strongest winds and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas over most of the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through mid week. The high pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish, although fresh to strong NE winds will persist south of Cuba and near Grand Cayman through Fri night. Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will pulse off Colombia into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from from 31N60W to 24N70W, with a a pre- frontal trough extending from 29N61W to the north coast of Haiti. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the trough. Moderate to fresh N winds are occurring within about 200 NM in the wake of the front. A second cold front extends from 31N70W to near 27N79W with high pressure building in behind the front. The resulting strong pressure gradient is favoring fresh to strong N to NE winds south of the front, and moderate to fresh N to NW winds north of the front. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1033 mb high pressure centered SW of The Azores near 36N33W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds S of 27N and E of 60W, leading to seas of 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere, seas are generally moderate. For the forecast W of 55W, a weak cold front reaches from 31N60W to 24N70W. A reinforcing cold front extends from low pressure over the north- central Atlantic to 31N70W, then to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The fronts will merge and reach from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Tue, from 28N55W to northeast Hispaniola by late Wed, then stall and weaken through Fri. Fresh to strong and rough seas will follow the front south of 22N through mid week. A trough will follow the reinforcing front between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Wed, followed by fresh to strong winds and rough seas in NW swell, north of 26N. High pressure will build across the waters north of 26N Thu, ahead of another cold front off northeast Florida. Looking ahead, the front will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by Fri night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba by late Sat. $$ Adams