000 AXNT20 KNHC 040941 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Dec 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near to 08N13W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 12W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches from Port Charlotte, Florida to near Brownsville, Texas. 1033 mb high pressure over the southeastern United States to the north of the front is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the southern Gulf south of 24N, with 5 to 8 ft seas, with the highest near the Yucatan Channel. The pattern is also supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds over the western Gulf, west of 93W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate over the Gulf later today. The high pressure building north of the front over the southeastern United States will maintain fresh to strong SE return flow over the western Gulf into tonight, accompanied by rough seas and numerous showers and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf coast Thu, stall across the central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass along with buoy observations confirmed strong to near- gale force winds across the western Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Fixed and drifting buoy data also indicates rough to very rough seas across the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the southwest Caribbean, mainly between Nicaragua and Jamaica. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over most of the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through tonight, and fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia farther south. The high pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish slightly. NE swell will lead to seas of 8 to 10 ft for Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands into Thu. Looking ahead, high pressure will build again north of the area over the western Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the western Caribbean along with moderate to rough seas through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Fresh winds and rough seas follow a cold front reaching from weak low pressure near 32N72W to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. A second, weaker front reaches from the north- central Atlantic through 31N55W to northeast Haiti. Strong N to NE winds and rough seas are active west of this front south of 22N from the southern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. 1031 mb high pressure centered near the Azores dominates the eastern Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds, stronger near the Canary Islands, and 6 to 9 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the two fronts will merge and reach from 31N52W to north-central Hispaniola late today, then stall and dissipate west off 55W through Thu. High pressure builds in behind the front, strong NE winds will continue south of 22N, offshore Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through tonight. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Thu into Fri, bringing large NW swell to the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda north of 28N through Sun. $$ Christensen