000
AXNT20 KNHC 041720
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Dec 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near to
07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 02N30W to 
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 
11W and 17W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15Z, a stationary front extends from a 1019 mb low located
inland over Texas to near Tuxpan, Mexico. A warm front stretches
from the same low to near 27N89W. Then, a cold front crosses South
Florida and the SE Gulf to near 27N89W. Abundant cloudiness, with
embedded showers and patches of rain, dominates most of the 
western Gulf N of 22N and W of 90W. High pressure of 1032 mb over 
the southeastern United States extends a ridge across the 
remainder of the Gulf waters and supports fresh NE winds across 
the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan 
Channel, with 5 to 8 ft seas, with the highest near the Yucatan 
Channel. The pattern is also supporting fresh to strong SE to S 
winds over the western Gulf, mainly N of 22N and west of 93W based
on scatterometer data. Seas are 7 to 10 ft within these winds.  
Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate over the Gulf later 
today. High pressure building north of the front over the SE United
States will maintain fresh to strong SE winds over the western 
Gulf into tonight, accompanied by rough seas and scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach 
the northern Gulf coast Thu, stall across the central Gulf by late
Fri before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure and associated 
ridging will build across the basin Thu night into the weekend, 
thus supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide Fri 
night through Sun night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data along with buoy observations indicate 
the presence of fresh to strong NE winds across the western 
Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, where NE winds of 25 
to 30 kt are noted. Fixed buoy data also indicates rough seas  
across the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are evident elsewhere, except near the coast of
Colombia where fresh to strong winds are noted. Showers and 
thunderstorms continue to flare-up over the SW Caribbean, mainly
over the offshore waters of Nicaragua. 

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will
continue to support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas 
over most of the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through 
tonight, and fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia farther 
south from tonight through Sun night. The high pressure will 
weaken and shift eastward Thu, allowing winds and seas to briefly 
diminish to mainly fresh speeds. NE swell will lead to seas of 8 
to 10 ft for Atlantic waters E of the Leeward Islands into Thu. 
Looking ahead, high pressure will build again north of the area 
over the western Atlantic Thu night and prevail through the 
weekend. This will resume fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
NW Caribbean Thu night, and in the Windward Passage and central 
Caribbean from Sat night through Sun night. Moderate to rough seas
expected across these regions through Sun.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of cold fronts continue to move across the western Atlantic
while the remainder of the forecast area remains under the influence
of a strong 1034 mb high pressure located E of the Azores near 
37N21W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower 
pressure over NW Africa is promoting an area of fresh to strong NE
N of 22N and E of 23W, including the western Canary Islands. 
Elsewhere E of 60W, this pattern is supporting mostly fresh NE to 
E winds and seas in the 7 to 10 ft range. A cold front extends 
from 31N55W to the N coast of Haiti. A pre-frontal trough runs 
from 23N64W to Puerto Rico. Some shower activity is along the 
frontal boundary. Farther west, another cold front stretches from
near Bermuda to South Florida. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are 
occurring near the southern end of the first front, particularly 
from 20N to 24N between 67W and 75W, including approaches to the 
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough 
seas are noted elsewhere ahead and behind the aforementioned cold 
fronts. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts will merge and reach from
31N52W to north-central Hispaniola late today, then stall and 
dissipate west off 55W through Thu. High pressure building in 
behind the front will continue to support strong NE winds south of
24N, offshore Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through early Thu 
morning. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the 
waters off northeast Florida late Thu into Fri, bringing large NW 
swell to the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda north of
28N through Sun. 

$$
GR