000 AXNT20 KNHC 050613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Dec 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 07N11W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to 03N28W 03N33W, to 02N41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ to 10N from 35W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 95W eastward. An inland Florida 1017 mb high pressure center is close to 30N82W, in the NE part of the state. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow, and mostly moderate seas, are from 90W eastward. A weakening surface trough is along 95W/97W from 23N to 28N. The trough is to the south of a Texas coastal plains frontal boundary. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward between 90W and 94W. The wind speeds are 20 knots or less, and the sea heights are rough in SE swell, from 26N northward between 94W and 97W. A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours or so, along 30N84W 28N87W. Expect strong NE winds, and moderate seas, from 27N northward between 92W and 97W. A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure centered over north Florida to the far southwest Gulf. Fresh S winds,rough seas and a few thunderstorms persist over the northwest Gulf this evening, over the northwest Gulf near a trough on the western edge of the ridge. The ridge will move southward through Thu ahead of a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf late Thu. The front will stall across the central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build north of the area behind the front into Mon, thus supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 13N to 22N between 73W and 84W. Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 10N to 13N between 71W and 80W. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and 80W, and toward the southwest, beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 80W and Panama/Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation is from 14N to 17N between 80W and eastern Honduras. A surface trough passes through 20N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the eastern parts of Puerto Rico, 15N68W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and moderate rainshowers, are from 15N northward between 60W and 70W. A recent cold front, that passed through Cuba and western Jamaica, lowered the temperatures in some sections of western Cuba to temperatures that are nearly 10 degrees colder than the normal- expected ranges for this time of the year. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 05/0000 UTC, are: 0.12 in Guadeloupe; and 0.08 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near- gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and off Colombia. The high pressure will weaken slightly Thu, allowing winds and seas to slightly diminish through Sat. Looking ahead, the high pressure will build again Sat night, supporting increased winds and seas across mainly the central Caribbean and Windward Passage through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two frontal boundaries are in the central sections of the Atlantic Ocean. The boundaries are about 1100 nm to the east of Florida. A surface trough is about 180 nm to the E/SE of the front that is more to the east. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and rainshowers, are within 380 nm to the west and to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N47W 25N56W, to the Windward Passage. Strong NW winds, and rough seas in W to NW swell, are 28N northward between 49W and 58W. Strong NE winds, and rough seas in NE swell, are elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 63W and 75W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation, are from 20N to 30N between 20W and 30W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 15N northward from 60W eastward, and from the surface trough/cold-to-stationary front eastward. A 1034 mb high pressure center is close to 37N19W. Strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from 09N to 22N between 35W and 50W. Winds 20 knots or less, and rough seas in NE to E swell, are elsewhere from 07N to 15N between 41W and 60W. Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 24N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 05/0000 UTC, are: 0.09 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A cold front extends from 31N51W to north-central Hispaniola. A second cold front extending from 31N53W to central Cuba will merge with the first front overnight, and the merged front will shift east of the area through late Thu. Another front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Thu night, reaching from Bermuda to Straits of Florida by late Fri, from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Sat, then will stall and dissipate along 22N through Sun. High pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat through Mon following the front. $$ mt/ec