000 AXNT20 KNHC 060555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Dec 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 05N09W, to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W, to 02N27W 02N38W. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 07N southward from 52W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, to SE Louisiana, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. A surface trough is about 65 nm to the southeast of the cold front from 93W northeastward. That surface trough continues to 24N98W at the coast of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers are to the north of the line 28N81W 25N90W 22N91W 20N97W. Strong N to NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 26N to 29N between 89W and 97W. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the area that is from 90W westward. Slight seas are from 90W eastward. Strong NE winds are from the surface trough northward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas follow a cold front entering the northwest Gulf this evening. The front will stall across the central Gulf by late Fri before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build north of the area behind the front into Mon, thus supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may enter the far northwest Gulf Tue night, followed by strong to near-gale force winds and rapidly building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from 10N to 16N between 73W and 81W. Strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 19N to 20N between 74W and 76W, including in the Windward Passage. Strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 15N to 20N between 80W and 86W. The monsoon trough is along 10N75W in Colombia, to 08.5N80W in Panama, beyond the border of Panama and Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: rainshowers are to the west and to the northwest of the line that runs from the Windward Passage, to the coast of Panama that is along 78W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 06/0000 UTC, are: 0.06 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure north of the region will build through Sat following a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic. This will allow fresh to strong winds to gradually increase in areal extent over the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and central Caribbean Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage Mon night and Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward into the central Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is approaching the area from the northwest. Strong to near gale-force W winds, and rough seas, are from 29N to 31N between 70W and 81W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NE to E swell, are from 08N to 20N between 37W and 58W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NW swell, are from 30N to 31N between 48W and 53W. A stationary front is along 31N45W 28N54W 24N63W. A surface trough continues from 24N63W, to 21N67W, to the Atlantic Ocean side coast of the SE Dominican Republic close to 19N69W. Rainshowers are possible within 90 nm on either side of the front and surface trough. A 1022 mb high pressure center is close to 27N72W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the west and to the northwest of the stationary front/surface trough. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 12N northward from 35W eastward. A 25W/26W surface trough is from 22N to 30N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation is from 16N to 30N between 20W and 31W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and scattered moderate to isolated strong convective precipitation, are within 75 nm on either side of 08N32W 10N22W 13N19W 20N17W 30N16W. A stationary front from 25N55W to the eastern Dominican Republic will weaken tonight then dissipate Fri. Another cold front is moving off the Carolina coast and will enter the waters off northeast Florida overnight. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Fri, then from 30N55W to central Cuba by late Sat, and finally stall and dissipate along 21N through Mon. High pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat through late Tue. $$ mt/ec