000 AXNT20 KNHC 060906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Dec 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 07N between 10W and 12W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Recent buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong N to NE winds following a cold front moving through the northern Gulf. Seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and building seas follow the cold front moving through the northern Gulf this morning. The front will stall across the central Gulf late today before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build north of the area behind the front into Mon, thus supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may enter the far northwest Gulf Tue night, followed by strong to near-gale force winds and rapidly building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Colombia, and moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas elsewhere. Recent buoy observations and a scatterometer satellite pass indicated mostly fresh NE winds across the Windward Passage and the northwest Caribbean. Seas in these areas are 5 to 7 ft, although buoy observations indicate seas to 8 ft between Jamaica and Honduras. The scatterometer pass also indicated fresh to strong E winds across the south-central Caribbean, with 8 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the region will build through Sat following a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic. This will allow winds to gradually increase in intensity and areal extent over the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and central Caribbean Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage Mon night and Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward into the central Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes to off the Carolina coast. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data show fresh to strong W winds to the north of 29N and west of 60W ahead of the approaching front. Wave heights are estimated to be 8 to 10 ft in this area as well. The subtropical ridge has shifted southward ahead of the advancing front, and is anchored by 1022 mb high pressure near 27N72W. Farther west, a stationary front extends from 31N44W to near the eastern Dominican Republic. Outside of the winds and seas ahead of the front described above, gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell north of 20N west of 35W. Fresh to strong E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted over the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Farther east, an upper level low is centered near 24N27W.Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of this low is supporting a surface trough from 15N to 25N along 25W, as well as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 15N to 30N between 22W and 30W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 20N and east of 35W, between the trough and high pressure north of Madeira. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident south of 20N and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front from 31N44W to the eastern Dominican Republic will dissipate later this morning. The cold front approaching the waters of northeast Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida late today, from 30N55W to central Cuba by late Sat, and finally stall and dissipate along 21N through Mon. High pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat into Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front will approach the waters off northeast Florida Tue night. $$ Christensen