000
AXNT20 KNHC 061733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Dec 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to
04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 03N34W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm of
the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 10W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico, 
stretching from north of Tampa Bay near 29N83W to a 1020 mb low 
pressure near 26N97W, just south of the Brownsville, TX coast. 
Near the low pressure, scattered shower are occurring off the 
Brownsville coast from 23N to 27N between 92W to the Texas/Mexico 
border. 

Behind the front, fresh to strong NE wind are noted off the Texas
coast with moderate to fresh NE winds off the Florida to Louisiana
coast. Seas in this region are 5 to 8 ft, with some buoys
reporting 9 to 10 ft off the middle Texas coast. Ahead of the
front, light to gentle winds are noted with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the front will stall across the central Gulf 
late today before dissipating Sat. Broad high pressure will build 
north of the area behind the front into Mon, supporting moderate 
to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. Looking ahead, a stronger
cold front is forecast to enter the far northwest Gulf Tue night,
followed by strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas.
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region combined with lower pressure
near the Colombia coast is bringing fresh to near gale-force winds
off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5 to 9 ft especially near the
strongest winds. Across the rest of the Caribbean, strong pressure
gradient is giving way to moderate to fresh winds - with NE winds
noted in the northwest Caribbean and easterly winds in the central
and eastern Caribbean. Seas mostly range 4 to 6 ft, with buoys
reporting 6 to 7 ft in the northwest basin. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted in northern Honduras, otherwise no significant
precipitation is occurring across the basin. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will build 
through Sat following a cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico 
and the western Atlantic. This will allow winds to gradually 
increase in intensity and areal extent over the northwest 
Caribbean, Windward Passage, and central Caribbean Sat through 
Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over the 
northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage Mon night and Tue as the 
high pressure shifts eastward into the central Atlantic. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends off the northeast
Florida coast from 31N68W to north of Cape Canaveral, Florida near
29N81W. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are behind the front.
Buoys are reporting seas 5 to 7 ft behind the front off the
Florida coast. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front
with 8 to 12 ft seas N of 28N between 64W and 75W. No significant
convection is associated with the front at this time. An old
boundary is lingering southeast of the front as a trough,
extending from 30N60W to 21N73W. Moderate to fresh winds are
occurring north of Cuba near the Windward Passage.

In the central Atlantic, a dying stationary front extends from
31N46W to 23N62W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted near the
northern portion of this front, N of 27N. Seas in this region
range 5 to 7 ft. Farther south, moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail S of 21N and west of 30W. Seas range 7 to 9 ft, with the
higher seas near the fresh winds.

In the eastern Atlantic, a pair of troughs are analyzed from
29N24W to 24N24W and the other from 26N34W to 20N31W. Scattered
moderate convection is widespread off the African coast due to an
upper level low northwest of the area. This convection is noted N
of 09N and E of 32W. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the
African coast N of 16N and E of 26W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in this
area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending off the
northeast Florida coast will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida late today, from 31N55W to central Cuba by late Sat, and 
finally stall and dissipate along 21N through Mon. High pressure 
will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat into Tue. 
Looking ahead, another cold front will approach the waters off 
northeast Florida Tue night. 

$$
AReinhart