000 AXNT20 KNHC 070554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Dec 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04N25W, to 03N44W. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 13N southward from 50W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 26N81W in South Florida, into the central Gulf, to 25N98W at the coast of NE Mexico. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from the cold front northward from 91W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are elsewhere from the cold front northward. Moderate or slower winds are from the cold front southward. Slight to moderate seas cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and rainshowers, are from the cold front northward from 90W westward. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas follow a cold front that extends from 26N82W to 25N98W. The front will reach the Florida Straits by early Sat and then dissipate while the stationary portion of the front lift northward as a warm front before dissipating Sat night. Broad high pressure will build north of the area behind the front into Mon, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is forecast to enter the far northwest Gulf Tue night, followed by strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas. The front is forecast to reach from Venice, Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon and exit the basin Wed evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from 10N to 14N between 73W and 80W. Strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 17N northward between 77W and 83W. Strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 13N to 15N between 64W and 70W. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, through eastern sections and southern sections of Panama, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 17N southward between 64W and 74W, and from 18N southward between 77W and 85W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 07/0000 UTC, are: 0.02 in Curacao and in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas off Colombia, and moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will intensify in the area allowing for winds to gradually increase in intensity and areal extent over the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and central Caribbean Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish over the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage Mon night and Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward into the central Atlantic. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds will prevail over the Colombia offshore waters through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N62W, to 27N70W, through the NW Bahamas, beyond 26N81W in South Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is 300 nm to 400 nm to the southeast of the cold front, from 20N northward. Rainshowers are to the west and to the northwest of 31N47W 17N60W. Rough to very rough seas are from 30N northward between 50W and 70W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas, are from 28N northward between 58W and 74W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas, are from 02N to 16N between 45W and 54W. Expect in 12 hours or so: fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NW swell, from 28N northward between 35W and 38W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 07/0000 UTC, are: 0.13 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Strong surface anticyclonic wind flow, and moderate to rough seas, are from 24N to 30N between 26W and 33W. Similar conditions are from 13N to 20N between 23W and 29W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow and rainshowers are from 13N northward from 40W eastward. A cold front extending from 30N62W to 26N80W will reach from 31N55W to 26N70W by Sat afternoon, and move over the central Atlantic subtropical waters Sun afternoon before dissipating. High pressure will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda Sat into Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach from 31N80W to St Augustine Wed afternoon and from 31N74W to the Straits of Florida Wed night. Strong winds and rough seas will build rapidly as the front moves across the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula. $$ mt/era