000
AXNT20 KNHC 071018
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Dec 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 04N25W. The ITCZ continues from 
04N25W, to 03N44W. Precipitation: rainshowers are from 13N 
southward from 50W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 25N80W to 24N90W, then the front 
becomes stationary to 25N97W. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate 
to rough seas, are noted in the wake of the front mainly N of 24N. 
Gentle to moderate winds are from the cold front southward. 
Slight to moderate seas cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, the fronts will weaken today, then dissipate 
tonight. Broad high pressure will build north of the area behind 
the front into Mon, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds 
across the basin. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is forecast
to enter the far northwest Gulf Tue night, followed by strong to 
gale-force winds and rapidly building seas. The front is forecast 
to reach from Venice, Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula to
the eastern Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon and exit the basin 
Wed evening.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region is supporting fresh to strong 
winds and rough seas off Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate seas are from 17N northward between 77W and 83W. Strong 
NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 13N to 15N between 64W and 
70W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will intensify in the 
area allowing for winds to gradually increase in intensity and 
areal extent over the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and 
central Caribbean through Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 
diminish over the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage Mon 
night and Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward into the 
central Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail over the 
Colombia offshore waters through midweek. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N58W to 25N80W. A surface trough is
analyzed ahead of the front from 31N56W to 22N62W. Rough to very
rough seas are from 28N northward between 55W and 77W. Moderate to
fresh winds and rough seas prevail elsewhere W of 50W. Strong 
surface anticyclonic wind flow and moderate to rough seas are 
from 24N to 31N between 26W and 33W. Similar conditions are from 
13N to 20N between 23W and 29W. 

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N55W to 
26N70W by this afternoon, and move over the central Atlantic 
subtropical waters Sun afternoon before dissipating. High pressure
will build between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Tue. 
Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off 
northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast 
to reach from 31N80W to St Augustine Wed afternoon and from 31N74W
to the Straits of Florida Wed night. Strong winds and rough seas 
will rapidly build as the front moves across the Bahamas and the 
Florida Peninsula. 

$$
ERA