000
AXNT20 KNHC 071740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Dec 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to the coast
of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
00N to 09N between 11W and 41W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure is analyzed north of Brownsville near 27N97W with a
central pressure of 1021 mb. Scattered showers and isolate
thunderstorms are noted across the middle and south Texas coast
from 25N to 28N between 94W and 97W. A stationary front extends
east of the low across the Gulf of Mexico to the Straits of
Florida to 25N81W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted
north of the low and stationary front across the northern basin
with light to gentle winds south of the boundary. Buoys are
reporting seas 5 to 7 ft along the Texas coast with 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken today and 
dissipate tonight. High pressure will slide across the southern 
United States into early next week, leading to mainly moderate 
easterly winds today veering SE on Sun, then S by Mon. Looking 
ahead, a stronger cold front is forecast to enter the far 
northwest Gulf Tue, followed by strong to gale-force winds and 
rapidly building seas. The front is forecast to reach from Venice,
Florida to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of 
Campeche by Wed and exit the basin Wed evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure is centered north of the region. This feature
combined with lower pressure over Colombia is leading to moderate
to fresh winds across most of the basin. Seas 6 to 8 ft are off
the Colombia coast, with 4 to 6 ft across the rest of the basin.
Isolated thunderstorms are north of the NE Honduras coast,
otherwise there is no significant convection noted. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will intensify in the 
area allowing for winds to gradually increase in intensity and 
areal extent over the northwest Caribbean, Windward Passage, and 
central Caribbean through Mon. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 
diminish over the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage Tue as 
the high pressure shifts eastward into the central Atlantic. Fresh
to strong NE winds will prevail over the Colombia offshore waters
into late next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N55W to
29N62W then stalls from that point to the straights of Florida
near 25N81W. Moderate to fresh N winds are north of the front.
Seas 8 to 10 ft are noted near the front N of 28N between 50W and
70W with 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Southeast of the front, a trough
extends from 24N62W to northern Haiti. Showers are noted within 50
nm of the front. Farther north, a pre-frontal trough is noted from
26N58W to 31N51W with scattered thunderstorms noted within 100 nm
of the boundary. 

In the central Atlantic, light to gentle winds N of 18N to the
front and pre-frontal trough. Moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail S of 18N from the African coast and Lesser Antilles. Seas
range 6 to 8 ft in this area. 

In the eastern Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from 30N28W to
24N31W. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring within 75 nm of the
trough. Fresh to strong winds are noted around the trough with
seas 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are noted off the
northwest African coast with seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate into Sun. High pressure will build between northeast 
Florida and Bermuda into Tue. Looking ahead, fresh to strong 
southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida Tue night ahead
of the next cold front forecast to reach from 31N80W to St 
Augustine Wed afternoon and from 31N74W to the Straits of Florida 
Wed night. Strong winds and rough seas will rapidly build as the 
front moves across the Bahamas. 

$$
AReinhart