000
AXNT20 KNHC 081037
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Dec 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains 
of Sierra Leone close to 07N12W to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N23W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 09N and E of 32W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A low pressure center is located near 29N95W. A stationary front 
extends from the low to 20N91W, and another stationary front is 
from the low to 23N97W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail
across the basin, along with moderate seas.

For the forecast, the low/fronts will meander across the NW Gulf 
waters through the weekend while weakening. Otherwise, high 
pressure centered over the SE United States will dominate the
region. A cold front is forecast to move offshore Texas Tue, then
move quickly SE and through the basin by late Wed. Behind the 
front, strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can 
be expected. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered north of the region is supporting fresh to
strong winds and rough seas over the NW and central Caribbean, 
including offshore Colombia and through the Windward Passage.  
Moderate seas and moderate to fresh winds, are in the remainder 
of the Caribbean Sea. 

For the forecast, the strong winds over the western half of the
basin will prevail until Monday, then the high pressure will 
shift eastward into the central Caribbean, and winds will diminish
to moderate to fresh, except off the coast of Colombia, where 
fresh to strong winds will prevail. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is located from 31N55W to the central Bahamas. A 
surface trough is from 150 nm to 200 nm to the southeast of the  
front, from 20N and the Windward Passage northeastward. rough seas
are noted in the vicinity of the front, mainly N of 29N. To the 
east, a 1018 mb low pres is analyzed near 29N35W, with trough 
extending from the low to 20N39W. Rough seas prevail N of 27N
between 28W-38W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, with moderate
to fresh winds and moderate seas. 

For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through 
today. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast 
Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach 
from 31N80W to St Augustine by Wed afternoon, and from 31N74W to 
the Straits of Florida Wed night. Strong winds and rough seas will
rapidly build southward behind the front late next week.
 

$$
ERA