000 AXNT20 KNHC 090016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Dec 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast near Freetown, then runs westward to 07N16W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 07N16W through 04N30W to northwest of Belem, Brazil at 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 06N between the Liberia coast and 16W, and up to 150 nm along either side of the ITCZ east of 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front reaches westward from near New Orleans, Louisiana to a 1018 mb low near Houston, Texas then turns southwestward to north of Tampico. Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near these features over the northwestern Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high over northern Florida to north of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to fresh S winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present from the Florida Straits to north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the low near Houston will dissipate tonight. Afterward, a strong cold front will move offshore Texas Tue, pass quickly southeastward through the Gulf, and exit the region Wed afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected. These hazardous conditions will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers at the eastern basin. Tight gradient between a 1025 mb high north of the Bahamas and a 1008 low pressure over northwestern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the central basin, including the Windward Passage. Mostly fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident at the western basin. Moderate E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the eastern basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong winds will prevail into Mon night. As the high pressure shifts eastward into the central Caribbean, these winds will diminish to between moderate and fresh, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will prevail. Looking ahead, a cold front may move through the Yucatan Channel Wed, then into the northwestern basin Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N47W to 21N65W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 100 nm along either side of this feature. A pronounced upper- level trough runs southward from near Madeira across 31N23W to near 20N30W. Strong divergent winds east of this feature is causing widely scattered moderate convection near the Cabo Verde Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A 1025 mb high pressure near 29N72W is promoting gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 28N between 60W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Farther east and south near the aforementioned cold front, moderate with locally fresh N to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found. Farther east, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of 20N between 35W and 50W/cold front. At the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 17N between the Africa coast and 35W, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands. gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from 04N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 35W. To the west, moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas exist from 04N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall tonight, then dissipate Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front that will reach from 31N78W to Fort Pierce, Florida, by Wed afternoon, and from 31N72W to western Cuba Wed night. Strong to near gale- force N to NE winds and rough seas will rapidly build southward behind the front through the end of the week. $$ Chan