000 AXNT20 KNHC 090556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Dec 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of NW Liberia and southern Sierra Leone, to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W, to 04N31W, 01N36W 02N41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward from 37W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface frontal boundary is inland, within 90 nm of the coastline, between eastern Louisiana and east Texas, and from east Texas toward the middle Texas Gulf coast. Fresh NE winds are in the Straits of Florida. Fresh southerly winds are from 25N northward from 90W westward. Fresh SE winds are from 28N northward from 90W eastward. Moderate surface anticyclonic winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the Louisiana coastal waters. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect in 48 hours or so: a cold front 29N91W 24N98W. Strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, from 25N northward between 93W and 97W Weak low pressure centered just inland along the upper Texas coast will dissipate tonight. A strong cold front will move offshore Texas Tue, pass quickly SE through the basin, and exit the region Wed afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected. These hazardous conditions will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 21N65W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the western sections of Puerto Rico, to 15N70W, to the Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 15N northward between 70W and 73W. Fresh to moderate easterly wind flow is elsewhere from the surface trough eastward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from Jamaica westward. Rough seas are in the southern half of the central one-third of the area. Moderate to rough seas in the rest of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is in Colombia from 10N to 07N, and then westward through Panama, and beyond southern Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC, are: 0.33 in Guadeloupe; and 0.01 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure centered north of the region is supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the NW and central Caribbean, including offshore Colombia and through the Windward Passage. These winds will prevail through Mon night, then the high pressure will shift eastward into the central Caribbean, and winds will diminish to moderate to fresh, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will prevail. Looking ahead, a cold front is likely to move through the Yucatan Channel Wed, then into the NW Caribbean Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N47W 28N50W 24N60W. A surface trough continues from 24N60W, to 22N70W, to the Atlantic Ocean coast of Cuba from 21N to 22N along 77W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas, are from 30N northward between 35W and 41W. The forecast in about 24 hours is for: fresh or slower winds, and rough seas, from 22N to 23N between 64W and 70W. Fresh to strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from Hispaniola to 25N between 66W and 74W, including in the Windward Passage. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N northward between 36W and 54W. Moderate or slower winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough passes through 31N37W, to 24N40W 17N44W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and rainshowers are from 13N northward between 30W and 50W. The upper level cyclonic wind flow that was above the surface trough for the last few days has dissipated. Fresh NE winds are within 420 nm to 480 nm on either side of 25N16W 23N32W 09N41W 13N60W. Strong NE winds are from 31N northward between 17W and 26W. A stationary front that is located from 28N47W to 24N60W will dissipate by late Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida Tue night ahead of the next cold front that will reach from 31N78W to Fort Pierce, Florida, by Wed afternoon, and from 31N72W to western Cuba Wed night. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas will rapidly build southward behind the front through the end of the week. $$ mt/era