000 AXNT20 KNHC 101014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico beginning today and move quickly across the Gulf through Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Gale force winds are expected to develop over the western Gulf mainly west of 92W behind the front during that time. Very rough to high seas are expected in the area of strongest winds. Conditions will improve across the Gulf by Thu as the cold front exits the basin and pushes farther east. Rough seas will subside by the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W then extends southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from 07N20W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm along either side of these features east of 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A surface ridge reaches southwestward from central Florida to north of Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh SE to SW winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the west-central, northwestern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a strong cold front will push offshore Texas on Tue, then quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region on Wed evening. Behind the front, strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected on tonight and Wed. These hazardous conditions will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A high pressure east of Bermuda continues to channel northeasterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong ENE trades with seas at 8 to 10 ft dominate the south- central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the north- central and southwestern basin, including the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate NE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward to central Atlantic today allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will prevail. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel beginning on Wed, and become stationary Thu night from east-central Cuba to near the northeast part of Nicaragua. The front will dissipate through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will diminish some on Fri, except in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage where pulses of strong winds will continue through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N46W to 21N62W, then continues as a shear line to near 23N72W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 150 nm on both sides of the front, particularly, between 51W and 62W. A 1027 mb high pressure east of Bermuda is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft north of 27N between 57W and the Georgia/northeastern Florida coast. Farther south and east, moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are found up to 250 nm northwest of the stationary front/shear line. At the central Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 20N between 35W and the stationary front/shear line. For the Tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with fresh ENE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas exist. Fresh to strong winds along with seas to 15 ft are found north of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening stationary front/shearline will dissipate today. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front that will reach from near 31N79W to South Florida by Wed afternoon, become stationary from near 31N69W to east-central Cuba by Thu night, then gradually weaken into late Fri night as strong high pressure builds in behind it. A broad trough is expected to develop ahead of the front near 61W. A tight pressure gradient west of the front and trough will bring strong to near gale-force north to northeast winds and rough seas over the waters in the vicinity of the trough and front. $$ ERA