000 AXNT20 KNHC 101614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front entering the NW Gulf will quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region on Wed evening. Strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected in the wake of the front tonight and Wed. Winds should be strongest Wed morning and afternoon with NW strong gale conditions just offshore of Veracruz. Seas should peak around 17 ft in the SW Gulf Wed afternoon. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. Eastern Atlantic Gale Conditions: ASCAT scatterometer winds around 1100 UTC indicate 35 kt NNE winds north of 30N east of 11W just offshore of Morocco. Peak seas are around 13 ft. Conditions should steadily improve by tonight. Please read the latest High Seas forecasts from MeteoFrance: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 . ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 06N11W then extends southwestward to 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 03N42W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N-07N between 17W-33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front has emerged off of the Texas and Louisiana coasts and extends from 30N93W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 27N west of 90W. S to SW winds ahead of the front are moderate to fresh, while the NW winds behind the front are (currently) moderate. Seas are 2-5 ft over the Gulf. For the forecast, the strong cold front entering the NW Gulf will quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region on Wed evening. Strong to gale- force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected in the wake of the front tonight and Wed. These hazardous marine conditions will prevail through Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong ENE to E trades across most of the Caribbean including the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Aside from isolated moderate convection just north of Honduras, the Caribbean is free from any significant convection. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean, including offshore Colombia and through the Windward Passage. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward over the central Atlantic through tonight allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will prevail on Wed. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel beginning on Wed, and become stationary Thu night from east- central Cuba to near the northeast part of Nicaragua. The front will dissipate through Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will diminish some on Fri, except in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage where pulses of strong winds will continue through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from 31N45W to 21N60W, where it transitions to a shearline to just north of the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 18N-28N between 47W-57W. Winds just north of the shearline are ENE fresh to strong with moderate to fresh NE winds north of the stationary front. Seas are 6-8 ft associated with these winds. Elsewhere, ridging extends from a 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores near 36N45W west- southwestward to the Florida peninsula hear 27N80W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with the ITCZ is forcing generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades. Seas within 120 NM of the ridge are 3-5 ft with 6-8 ft elsewhere. The exception is for strong to gale force NNE winds near the Canary Islands and Morocco due to interaction between the Bermuda-Azores High and a low over western Algeria. Seas are 9-13 ft in the area of these strong to gale force winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening stationary front and shearline will dissipate today. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the basin Wed morning. The front will reach from near 31N77W to South Florida by Wed afternoon, become stationary from near 31N69W to east-central Cuba by Thu night, then gradually weaken into late Fri night as strong high pressure builds in behind it. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. A broad trough is expected to develop ahead of the front near 60W. A tight pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure to the NE will support fresh to strong E to SE winds on the E side of the trough axis. $$ Landsea/Rubio