000 AXNT20 KNHC 110456 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0453 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front over the NW Gulf will continue to quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region Wed evening. Strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected in the wake of the front tonight and Wed. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of near-gale to gale winds over the NW Gulf north of 22N. Winds should be strongest Wed morning and afternoon with NW strong gale conditions just offshore of Veracruz. Seas should peak around 17 ft in the SW Gulf Wed afternoon. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E Wed night into Thu Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the basin by early Wed afternoon. Frequent gusts to gale-force out of the S and SW and building seas to 11 ft are expected ahead of the front on Wed. Winds will turn to the NW behind the front and frequent gusts to gale-force will continue Wed evening before winds slowly diminish to fresh to strong speeds on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 07N12W then extends southwestward to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 14W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A strong cold front extends from 29N91W to 24N98W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the front an is producing scattered moderate to strong convection north of 26N between 88W and 95W. Strong to near-gale force N to NW winds are occurring along and behind the front per latest ASCAT data. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring ahead of the front and across northern and eastern portions of the basin. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across much of the Gulf, with seas to 9 ft occurring behind the front. For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front extending from SE Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas will quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region on Wed evening. Strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas can be expected in the wake of the front tonight and Wed. Expect the strongest winds, in the 35 to 40 kt range tonight and Wed morning, with NW strong gale conditions just offshore of Veracruz. Seas should peak around 17 ft in the SW Gulf early Wed afternoon. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E Wed night into Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the lower pressures over South America is forcing fresh to strong ENE to E trades across most of the Caribbean including the Windward Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Aside from isolated moderate convection just north of Honduras, the Caribbean is free from any significant convection. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean, including offshore Colombia and through the Windward Passage. The high pressure will continue to shift eastward over the central Atlantic through tonight allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will persist through Thu morning. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean by Wed evening, and become stationary from east-central Cuba to near the northeast part of Nicaragua Thu night while weakening. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will diminish some on Fri, except in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage where pulses of strong winds will continue through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. Widely scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 14N between 43W and 55W in association to a trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also occurring along the trough. Locally strong NE winds are occurring just to the west of the trough. Elsewhere, ridging extends from a 1032 mb Bermuda-Azores near 37N45W west-southwestward to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with the ITCZ is forcing generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades. Seas within 120 NM of the ridge are 4-6 ft with 6-8 ft elsewhere. The exception is for near the Canary Islands and Morocco where seas to 9 ft are found. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds will continue to develop off northeast Florida tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the basin by early Wed afternoon. Frequent gust to gale-force and building seas are expected ahead and behind the front on Wed. This system will reach from near 31N74W to the Straits of Florida on Wed night, become stationary from near 31N69W to east- central Cuba by Thu night, then gradually weaken into late Fri night as strong high pressure builds in behind it. Farther E, a broad surface trough is analyzed from 30N46W to 21N51W. The trough is forecast to shift westward trough at least Fri. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the trough due to a tight pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure to the NE, and between the trough and an approaching cold front from the W. $$ KRV