000 AXNT20 KNHC 111046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front over the NW Gulf will continue to quickly move southeastward across the basin, exiting the region Wed evening. Strong to gale-force winds and rapidly building seas to 17 ft can be expected in the wake of the front today. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu. Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will continue over the NE Florida offshore waters today ahead of a rapidly approaching cold front forecast to enter the basin by this afternoon. Frequent gusts to gale-force out of the S and SW and building seas to 13 ft are expected behind the front today. Winds will turn to the NW behind the front and frequent gusts to gale-force will continue this evening before winds slowly diminish to fresh to strong speeds on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 09N13W then extends southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to 04N36W to 01N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the boundaries between 15W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A strong cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico this morning. Strong to gale-force northerly winds follow the front along with very rough seas to 16 ft, strongest conditions occurring in the SW basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight to moderate winds are ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf. Aside from the wind and seas, scattered showers and tstms are ongoing ahead of the front in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, strong to gale force northerly winds will continue to follow a cold front and affect the north-central, northeastern and western Gulf of Mexico through this evening. The front will reach from Tampa Bay to the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel this evening. Very rough seas to 18 ft are forecast to build over the SW basin during this period. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the lower pressures over South America is forcing fresh to strong ENE to E trades across the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the eastern basin while gentle to moderate easterlies are occurring in the NW region. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across the central and SW Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Isolated showers prevail in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sat morning. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean by Wed evening, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas. The front will reach from central Cuba to the Cayman Islands by Thu morning where it will stall before dissipating Fri. However, strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front over the Gulf of Mexico and the SW N Atlantic waters, which will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage through early Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. Strong high pressure anchored by a 1037 mb high over the NW Atlantic extends a broad ridge across the entire subtropical Atlantic waters. The ridge is being disected by an elongated surface trough that extends from 31N45W to 09N55W, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms within 300 nm either side of the trough axis. Aside from the convective activity, fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 10 ft are also ongoing either side of the trough between 40W and 68W. Otherwise, fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are over the NE Florida offshore waters, ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Gentle to moderate winds and seas are elsewhere in the subtropics while moderate to fresh trades dominate the tropical waters. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds will continue to affect the NE Florida offshores waters today, ahead of an approaching cold front forecast to come off the coast of Jacksonville this afternoon. Frequent gust to gale-force winds and rough seas are expected ahead of the front through late this afternoon and will also follow the front through the early evening hours. The front will reach from 31N73W to the northern Bahamas to western Cuba near 23N80W tonight, stall E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba Thu night and dissipate Fri. However, strong high pressure and associated ridging will build in the wake of the front, which will tighten the pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the east. This will lead to the continuation of strong to near gale-force winds across most of the region through the weekend. $$ Ramos