000 AXNT20 KNHC 120449 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Dec 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0448 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front spans from western Cuba to Belize. Strong to gale-force winds and seas to 19 ft can be expected in the SW Gulf through this evening. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu. Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds will continue over the NE Florida offshore waters this evening ahead of a cold front moving rapidly across the NW basin. Frequent gusts to gale- force out of the S and SW and building seas to 11 ft are expected ahead of the front this evening. Winds will turn to the NW behind the front and frequent gusts to gale- force will continue tonight before winds slowly diminish to fresh to strong speeds on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 11N15W then extends southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 02N49W. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 18W and 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A strong cold front has moved east of the area and extended from western Cuba to Belize. Strong to near gale-force N winds follow the front across much of the Gulf along with very rough seas up to 19 ft, with gale-force winds occurring in the SW basin. Aside from the wind and seas, scattered moderate convection lingers just offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula in the far eastern Bay of Campeche. Marine conditions have improved over the NW Gulf where winds are moderate to fresh with seas 4 to 8 ft. For the forecast, a Gale Warning will remain in effect for the SW Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of hours in the wake of a strong cold front that moved east of the area early this evening. Strong gale force winds and very rough seas to 17 ft remain in the SW Gulf and just west-southwest of the Tampa area. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish from W to E tonight into Thu, then high pressure settling into the northern Gulf will bring more tranquil weather for the end of the week, and into the weekend. However, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Sat as the high pressure strengthens while moving towards the NE of the United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extend from western Cuba to Belize, while a pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 21N80W to inland Belize. This pre-frontal trough is fueling the development of scattered moderate convection over the NW Caribbean including the Yucatan Channel. The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High well north of the area and lower pressures over South America is forcing fresh to strong ENE to E trades across the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage. Rapidly increasing NE winds are developing in the NW Caribbean ahead of a strong cold front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the eastern basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the central and SW Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean, including offshore Colombia. The high pressure will shift eastward over the central Atlantic through tonight allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds, except off the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong winds will persist through Fri. A cold front extending from western Cuba to Belize will become stationary from east-central Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua Thu night while weakening. Fresh to strong northeast winds behind the front will diminish some on Fri, except in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage where fresh to strong NE winds will continue through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A strong cold front is across the northwestern basin and extends from 31N76W SW to the Straits of Florida. Ahead of the front a line of showers and thunderstorms is depicted N of 27.5N between 75 and 79W. Strong to near-gale force winds with frequent gusts to gale force are occurring along and behind the front. Elsewhere, strong high pressure anchored by a 1042 mb high over the north-central Atlantic extends a broad ridge across the entire subtropical Atlantic waters. The ridge is being dissected by an elongated surface trough that extends from 30N49W to 14N52W, which is supporting widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 13N to 28N between 46W and 56W. Recent scatterometer data depicted winds near-gale within the areas of the strongest convection. Aside from the convective activity, fresh to strong E winds and seas up to 11 ft are also ongoing on either side of the trough between 40W and 62W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas dominate the Atlantic E of 40W. For the forecast W of 55W, strong to frequent gust to gale-force NW winds and rough seas will continue to affect the northeast and central Florida offshore waters tonight behind a cold front that extends from 31N76W SW to the Straits of Florida. The front will reach from 31N69W to 23N78W Thu afternoon, and 31N68W to 21.5N75W Fri afternoon while weakening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the east. In addition, strong high pressure also follows the trough. This weather pattern will lead to the continuation of strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas across most of the region through the weekend. Winds will start to gradually weaken Sun night into Mon. $$ KRV