000
AXNT20 KNHC 121045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1040 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over W Africa near 11N15W 
then extends southwestward to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N17W to 04N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the 8-16 ft are
ongoing over the E and SW Gulf after the passage of a cold front
that exited the basin Wed evening. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas.  

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas 
greater than 12 ft over the E and SW Gulf will continue to 
diminish through this afternoon. However, strong high pressure 
building over the SE CONUS and its associated ridge will continue 
to support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft over 
the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Sun night. 
Afterward, moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin will 
further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail of a cold front over the SW N Atlantic waters has stalled 
over the NW Caribbean where it continues to generate scattered
showers in the Belize and Honduras offshore waters. The stationary
front that extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras is
followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft,
highest in the Yucatan Channel. Over the central basin, NE fresh
to strong winds prevail along with moderate seas, except rough to
9 ft offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate
seas are ongoing elsewhere.  

For the forecast, strong high pressure building over the Gulf of 
Mexico and in the wake of a cold front over the SW N Atlantic
waters will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas in the NW Caribbean and the Windward 
Passage through Sun morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds
will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon 
afternoon as the broad high pressure shift NE and then eastward to
the north-central Atlantic waters. The high pressure will also 
support fresh to strong NE winds over the central and SW Caribbean
through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds over the E 
Caribbean will diminish on Fri as a surface trough enters the 
region. Otherwise, the front will dissipate tonight. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N74W SW to the northern Bahamas into 
central Cuba and stalls in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong 
northerly winds and rough seas behind the front continue to affect
the Florida offshore waters, and the northern and central 
Bahamas. The remainder subtropical waters are under the influence
of a broad ridge that continues to be disected by a surface trough
that extends from 27N48W to 18N54W. The trough is generating
scattered showers and tstms between 42W and 59W. Aside from the
convection, a tighter pressure gradient against the ridge is
supporting fresh NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft west of the
trough axis and fresh to near gale force E to SE winds along with
rough seas to 14 ft east of its axis to 40W. Gentle to moderate
winds and seas are ongling elsewhere in the subtropical waters.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the
tropical waters E of 50W.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will stall from 31N68W 
to the central Bahamas this evening and dissipate tonight into 
early Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas 
affecting the Florida offshore waters, and the northern and 
central Bahamas will prevail and expand in areal coverage through 
the weekend as strong high pressure building in the wake of the 
front will tighten the pressure gradient against an approaching 
surface trough from the east. Frequent gust to gale force winds 
will likely develop over the northern Bahamas offshore waters Sat 
through Sun. Winds will start to gradually weaken across the 
region Sun night into Mon. 

$$
Ramos