000 AXNT20 KNHC 122345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Dec 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES: The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of the threat of cyclonic near gale or gale in the marine zone IRVING. The OUTLOOK period covers the next 24 hours after the initial 36-hour forecast period. Please, refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and extends to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 04N40W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 07N between 34W and 45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 19W and 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 mb high is centered over eastern Mexico, a 1033 mb high prevails over the Deep South in the United States and a stationary front extends from central Cuba through northern Honduras. The pressure gradient between these features supports fresh to strong NE winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and through the Florida Straits, mainly for areas east of 89W and south of 28N. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft accompany these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 7 ft are occurring across northern and western portions of the Gulf. Residual rough seas to 8 ft remain in the southern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted in the far southwestern Gulf. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between strong ridging in the eastern United States and western Atlantic and low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean will sustain fresh to strong NE winds across the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida and moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the remainder of the basin through Sun night. Afterward, moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... At 1800 UTC, a stationary front was analyzed from central Cuba southwestward through northern Honduras. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted in the vicinity of the front across much of the northwestern Caribbean, as well as through the Windward Passage and downwind of Hispaniola. This pressure gradient also supports moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the central and southwestern Caribbean, with locally strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate NE winds prevail in the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail through the Yucatan Channel and into the northwestern basin, as well as offshore of Colombia and eastern Panama. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient between the stationary front and building high pressure in the southeastern United States and western Atlantic will sustain fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas behind the frontal boundary. The strong ridge will support fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas in the NW Caribbean and the Windward Passage through Sun morning. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will further diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Mon afternoon as the broad high pressure shifts NE and then eastward to the north- central Atlantic waters. The high pressure will also support fresh to strong NE winds over the central and SW Caribbean through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Caribbean will diminish on Fri as a surface trough enters the region. Otherwise, the front is expected to dissipate tonight into Fri morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W through the central Bahamas, and a stationary front continues southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are occurring along and behind this front, generally west of 70W through the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail in the region of fresh to strong winds. Elsewhere, a trough extends from 28N53W to 07N57W, and a 1039 mb is centered north of the area near 45N40W. The strengthening pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds west of the trough axis, from 68W eastward, and widespread strong E to SE winds east of the trough, generally north of 22N between 40W and 59W. Rough seas are noted across all of the aforementioned areas surrounding the trough, with peak seas of 13 to 16 ft occurring north of 24N between 50W and 60W. South of 20N, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail offshore of Mauritania and Senegal. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall from 31N67W to the eastern Bahamas this evening and dissipate tonight into early Fri. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas affecting the Florida offshore waters, and the northern and central Bahamas will prevail and expand in areal coverage to the east through the weekend as strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the pressure gradient against an approaching surface trough from the east. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will impact a large area north of 20N through this weekend. Frequent gust to gale force winds are likely over the northern Bahamas offshore waters Sat through Sun. Winds will start to gradually weaken across the region Sun night into Mon. $$ ADAMS