568 AXNT20 KNHC 131750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Dec 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N68W, to the Atlantic Ocean side coast of Cuba near 22N78W. A surface trough continues from 22N78W in Cuba, through 20N80W, to the western coast of Honduras. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong NE winds, and rough seas, from 22N northward from 68W westward, including in the Straits of Florida and in the Atlantic Ocean exposures. Expect gale-force NE winds, from 27N to 29N between 70W and 74W, on Saturday afternoon. The gale-force winds are forecast to last for 12 hours or so. A separate Atlantic Ocean NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along 30N59W, to a 23N62W 1012 mb low pressure center, to the NE coast of Venezuela that is along 63W. Expect strong to near gale- force NE to E winds, and rough seas, from 20N northward between 35W and 69W. The winds and the seas that are accompanying this separate surface trough are forecast to merge with the conditions of the 31N68W-22N78W stationary front in 24 hours or so. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 870 nm to the east of the separate surface trough from 15N to 28N. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES... The OUTLOOK section for the METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of: the persistence of or the threat of cyclonic near gale-force winds, or gale-force winds, in the marine zones IRVING and METEOR, in the western sections of MADEIRA, in the western sections of CANARIAS, and in the northern sections of CAPE VERDE. The OUTLOOK period covers the next 24 hours that are after the initial 36-hour long forecast period. Please, refer to the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal plains of Liberia close to 05N09W, to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W, to 04N36W. A surface trough is along 39W/41W from 05N to 10N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 07N between 24W and 34W, and from 05N to 11N between 35W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, toward the southwestern corner of the area. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, are from 22N to 25N between 81W and 86W, including in the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are in the NE quadrant of the Gulf. Fresh or slower surface anticyclonic wind flow, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong high pressure over the SE United States will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E winds over the E Gulf of Mexico including the Florida Straits through Sun night. On Mon and Tue, conditions will be quiescent across the entire Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front reaches the Atlantic Ocean side coast of Cuba near 22N78W. A surface trough continues from 22N78W in Cuba, through 20N80W, to the western coast of Honduras. Expect for the next 24 hours or so: strong NE winds, and rough seas, from 16N to 23N between 80W and 87W. Strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are from 15N to 20N between 73W and 79W. Strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 15N to 19N between 69W and 73W. Expect for the next 30 hours or so: strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 18N southward from 84W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward from 81W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 13/1200 UTC, are: 0.91 in Trinidad; 0.09 in Guadeloupe; 0.08 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.06 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Strong ridging over the SE United States will continue to force fresh to strong NE winds across the central and W Caribbean including through the Windward Passage until Sat night. A broad surface trough extending across the Lesser Antilles this morning will gradually move westward over the next few days. This trough will cause the pressure gradient to relax across most of the Caribbean on Sun. Looking ahead on Mon and Tue, trades across the Caribbean should be moderate or weaker. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about gale-force winds for parts of the SW North Atlantic Ocean. Expect gale-force NE winds, from 27N to 29N between 70W and 74W, on Saturday afternoon. The gale-force winds are forecast to last for 12 hours or so. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section also, for details about possible gale-force winds in some of the METEO- FRANCE marine zones. Expect for the next 12 hours or so: fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NE to E swell, from 07N to 15N between 37W and 50W. Expect for Saturday morning: strong to near gale-force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas, from 19N northward between 35W and 50W. A stationary front that extends from just west of Bermuda to central Cuba should dissipate by tonight. A 1012 mb low near 23N62W sits along a north-south oriented trough. As the low/trough shifts westward, a large area of strong to near gale NE winds and very rough seas will set up over all of the waters west of 65W during the weekend. As the pressure gradient tightens between the low/trough and high pressure over the US mid-Atlantic waters, peak winds should reach gale force Sat and Sat night between the waters north of the Bahamas and Bermuda. During Sun and Mon, conditions will gradually improve, and by Tue winds will be reduced to fresh across the area. $$ mt/cl