000 AXNT20 KNHC 141642 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Dec 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... West Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1050 mb high pressure over northern New York State and 1010 mb low pressure and a sharp trough north of the Mona Passage continues to support NE Gale Force Winds north of 29N between 66W and 73W. Elsewhere north of 25N between 65W and the coast of Florida, NE winds are sustained at strong to near-gale force speeds, with frequent gusts to gale force. Satellite altimeter data just received supports an analysis of 12-16 ft seas in this area. These conditions are forecast to continue through Sunday. On Sunday night, winds and seas will begin to subside as the pressure gradient weakens. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong complex of low pressure near 25N30W is generating cyclonic gales from 20N to 24N between 26W and 29W, and outside of forecast waters north of 31N. The area of low pressure is forecast to deepen and move NW to near 32N31W Sunday morning. Gales will spread westward with the low pressure, covering the waters north of 27N between 21W and 37W Sunday morning. Seas currently ranging from 12-15 ft will build to 12-21 ft by Sunday morning, across the area north of 25N between 20W and 43W. Marine conditions are forecast to improve in the early part of next week as the low moves out of the area. Meteo-France has also issued GALE WARNINGS for the CANARAIS, IRVING, METEOR, and MADEIRA Forecast Zones. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Warning/Forecast at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more details. For both GALE WARNINGS, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N11W to 07N57W. Scattered showers are along the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh return flow and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the Gulf. In the Straits of Florida and far SE Gulf, the latest satellite scatterometer indicates strong ENE winds and seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, a strong ridge over the SE United States will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, through early Mon. Then, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, the next cold front should reach the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE winds continue in the lee of Cuba, across the Cayman Islands, and remainder of the NW Caribbean due to building high pressure well north of the area. Seas are 6-9 ft in this section of the basin. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted in the Windward Passage, with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to fresh NE winds are analyzed in the southwest and south-central Caribbean, with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient will continue to force fresh to strong NE winds over the NW Caribbean and through the Windward Passage until early Sun. A broad surface trough over the SW N Atlantic waters extending into the Caribbean through the Mona Passage will drift westward moving across the central Caribbean on Sun while weakening. This trough will cause the pressure gradient to relax across most of the Caribbean, allowing for gentle to moderate trades across the basin through Tue. Looking ahead, a building ridge N of the area may enhance the trade wind flow over the central Caribbean to fresh to strong speeds Tue night through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on two GALE WARNINGS and descriptions of associated winds and seas. Seas are in excess of 8 ft north of 20N across the Atlantic Ocean. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES for described areas of seas in excess of 12 ft. Winds north of 20N, generally blowing from the N and E, are fresh to strong. Seas are 4-7 ft south of 20N with moderate to locally fresh trades. For the forecast W of 55W, the tight pressure gradient between a strong high pressure over the eastern of the United States and a 1010 mb low pressure currently located N of the Mona Passage will continue to support strong to minimal gale-force NE winds and very rough seas over all of the waters west of 65W. Gale force winds between the waters of the Bahamas and Bermuda will prevail through Sun. Marine conditions will gradually improve late Sun and Mon, and by Tue and Wed winds will be reduced to moderate to fresh across the entire area. $$ Mahoney