000
AXNT20 KNHC 152245
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Dec 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from 07N12W to 07N15W. The ITCZ 
continues from that point to 02N42W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 02N to 06N between 25W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends across the basin. Moderate to fresh
E winds prevail across the area, with the exception of the 
Straits of Florida, where fresh to strong winds are noted. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge over the eastern of United 
States will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and 
moderate to rough seas over the southeastern Gulf, including the 
Straits of Florida, through Mon. Then, gentle to moderate winds 
and slight to moderate seas are expected through Wed. Looking 
ahead, a weak cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed 
night and dissipate over the northern Gulf by early Thu. High 
pressure in the wake of the front will bring gentle to moderate 
northerly winds and slight to moderate seas Thu through Sat. 
 
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed over Hispaniola and is causing 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the island and 
adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong 
NE winds and seas to 7 ft prevail at the NW basin. Gentle to 
moderate winds and moderate seas prevail for the remainder of the 
basin.

For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient will continue to 
force fresh NE winds in the lee of Cuba, and over the NW 
Caribbean through Mon morning. The surface trough over Hispaniola
will drift westward, reaching the NW Caribbean on Wed. High 
pressure will build in the wake on the trough, and will enhance 
the trade wind flow to fresh to strong speeds over the central 
Caribbean mainly at night Mon through Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tight pressure gradient between a strong high pressure over the
NE United States and lower pressure over the Caribbean continues 
to support strong to near-gale NE winds and very rough seas over 
most of the waters west of 65W. A complex low pressure system is 
generating similar conditions over the E Atlantic, mainly E of 40W.
Surface ridging dominates the central subtropical Atlantic waters
where winds are mainly gentle to moderate, with moderate seas.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the tight pressure gradient between a 
strong high pressure over the eastern Seaboard and a surface 
trough with axis along 71W will continue to support fresh to 
strong NE winds and very rough seas over most of the waters west 
of 65W. These hazardous marine conditions will gradually diminish 
late tonight into Mon. Then, fresh to strong E winds will prevail
E of the Bahamas through Wed as a ridge builds towards the 
western Atlantic. Looking ahead, the next cold front is forecast 
to move off NE Florida offshore waters Wed night and reach from 
Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu night. 

$$
ERA