000 AXNT20 KNHC 171752 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Dec 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W, to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to 04N30W 03N41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 38W and 56W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 20N96W 18N92W. Fresh to strong NE-to-E winds are from 21N southward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm of the coasts of Mexico and the Deep South of Texas. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle, to the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas. Moderate seas cover nearly the entire area of the Gulf. Some exceptions are for: slight seas in the Tampa Florida metropolitan area coastal waters, and in the Mexico coastal waters that are close to 20N96W. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A ridge extends from the SE of United States into the Gulf waters. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Wed, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida today. A weak cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico by Wed and dissipate over the northern Gulf by early Thu. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the south-central United States in the wake of the front will lead to moderate N to NE winds and slight to moderate seas across the basin Thu through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough curves from Belize to eastern Honduras, to 12N82W to the east of Nicaragua. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm of the coast of Honduras between 82W and 87W. Moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow, and slight to moderate seas, cover the Caribbean Sea. The marine forecast for tonight, in about 12 hours or so, consists of: strong NE-to-E winds, and moderate seas, from 11N to 15N between 70W and 76W, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, through eastern Panama, and beyond southern Panama, and into the Pacific Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/1200 UTC, are: 0.15 in Trinidad; 0.13 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.06 in Trinidad; and 0.04 in Curacao. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean beginning tonight through Thu night. The highest seas are expected near the coast of Colombia. As the high pressure over the Atlantic moves eastward, expect fresh winds over the NE Caribbean tonight through Thu with moderate to rough seas in NE swell across the Atlantic passages. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N34W, to 28N40W 26N50W 30N63W. Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and rough to very rough seas in NE swell, are from the cold front northward to 29N from 55W eastward. Strong E winds, and rough seas in NE swell, are between the front and the line 31N58W 29N55W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NE swell, are elsewhere to the north of the line 31N35W 25N45W 23N55W. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NE swell, are from 10N to 21N from 50W eastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast high level clouds are within 250 nm on either side of 21N49W 27N36W, beyond 31N30W. Rainshowers are within 60 nm to 90 nm on either side of the cold front. Strong E winds, and rough seas in NE swell, are from 20N to 28N between 64W and 77W and to the east of the Bahamas. Fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in NE-to-E swell, are elsewhere from 20N northward from 65W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 17/1200 UTC, are: 0.02 in Bermuda; and 0.02 in Freeport in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 12N to 20N from 20W eastward; from 12N to 25N between 20W and 35W; from 04N to 19N between 35W and 50W; and from 20N southward between 50W and 60W. Mostly rough seas in general, with some areas of moderate to rough seas, are from 09N northward between 20W and 60W. Mostly moderate seas in general, with some areas of slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1035 mb located NE of Bermuda and a low-level trough over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba continues to support fresh to strong E winds and rough seas E of the Bahamas to about 65W. A cold front is moving across the NE waters producing fresh to locally strong winds. Winds will diminish E of the Bahamas on Wed but increase across the waters S of 27N between 55W and 70W as the Atlantic high pressure moves eastward. These winds will diminish by Thu night as a low pressure develops E of area. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeastern Florida coast Wed night, reach from near 32N71W to the central Bahamas by late Thu night and stall. A strong cold front may quickly merge with the stalled front late on Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds. $$ mt/gr