000 AXNT20 KNHC 191042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Dec 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 05N between 27W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... At 0600 UTC, a cold front was analyzed from the panhandle of Florida near 30N86W, extending southwestward into far northern Mexico near 26N97W. No significant convection is noted in association with this feature. Moderate to fresh N are occurring along and behind the front in the northern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring in the central through southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with gentle winds noted elsewhere. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft across the basin, with local seas to 5 ft occurring near the front. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress southeastward today before weakening on Fri. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will occur along and behind the front this morning. Otherwise, moderate N to NE winds will prevail over the basin today. Another strong cold front will enter the northern Gulf of Mexico Fri night and progress southward through the weekend before dissipating late Sun. Fresh to locally strong N winds and a modest increase in seas will occur along and behind this front Fri night in the northern Gulf. Moderate NE winds will then occur across the basin on Sat. Looking ahead, building high pressure will shift slowly eastward across the eastern United States late Sat through Mon, leading to moderate NE to E winds across most of the Gulf of Mexico into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Belize into far northern Honduras, and a 1008 mb low is located over far northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the northwestern Caribbean to the north and east of the trough. A tight pressure gradient between these features and high pressure in the central Atlantic is supporting fresh E to NE winds from the southwestern through eastern Caribbean, with locally strong E winds occurring off the coast of Colombia. Moderate NE winds are occurring in the northwestern basin. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted across much of the basin, with the exception of the northwestern sea where seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted. Locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail in areas of strong winds. For the forecast, fresh trade winds will continue across the eastern, central and southwestern Caribbean as well as through the Atlantic Passages through Fri as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the northern Atlantic and the Colombian low. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of Colombia and Venezuela this morning and again tonight. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail over the aforementioned areas, with locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft occurring near strong winds in the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are expected in the northwestern basin today. High pressure building over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend will lead to generally moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds across the basin through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front moving off the southeastern United States will promote fresh to locally strong NE winds across the Caribbean Sea early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1036 mb high is centered north of the area near 39N44W, and ridging dominates much of the basin. A strong pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the south-central Caribbean supports widespread fresh E to NE winds north of 15N. Strong E winds are occurring from 19N to 28N between 47W and 66W. Rough seas are noted in the aforementioned areas, and locally very rough seas to 13 ft prevail near strong winds. South of 15N, moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate. A strengthening low pressure system is centered near 30N38W and a cold front extends southwestward to 23N39W, with a stationary front continuing to 19N42W. Fresh to strong winds and locally very rough seas to 13 ft are wrapping along the northern periphery of the system. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 27N to 31N between 31W and 37W. Gale-force wind gusts are likely with the strongest convection. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring east of the Bahamas. For the forecast W of 55W, a wide swath of fresh NE to SE winds will continue today for areas north of 15N and west of 55W as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the central Atlantic and the Colombian low. Strong E to NE winds will occur through this morning from 18N to 27N east of 67W. Very rough seas of 12 to 13 ft will occur near the area of strongest winds. Rough seas in excess of 8 ft will prevail north of 15N today before seas begin to slowly subside from north to south late tonight through early Sat. South of 15N, moderate to locally fresh trades and rough seas will prevail today before winds diminish to moderate speeds on Fri. A cold front will move off the coast of the southeastern United States late tonight and stall, then enter the NW zones off of Florida Fri, and reach from 31N68W to western Cuba by Sat morning. Fresh to strong N to NW winds will occur behind the front. Looking ahead, widespread fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will redevelop across areas north of 20N early next week. $$ ADAMS