750 AXNT20 KNHC 201051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Dec 20 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N08W and extends to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N and between 28W and 35W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 23N90W, and a stationary front continues to 23N98W. No significant convection is noted with this boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in moderate to fresh N-NE winds in the south-central Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken and drift southward today, and dissipate near the Yucatan Channel on Sat. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the basin through tonight. A reinforcing cold front will progress southeastward through the northern and central Gulf tonight through this weekend. Fresh to locally strong N winds will be possible along and behind this front in the northern Gulf late tonight. Moderate NE to E winds are then expected this weekend into early next week as the fronts weaken and ridging builds over eastern Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 15N west of 81W, and widely scattered showers are noted off the coast of Panama. A 1008 mb low is centered near 10.5N75W, and fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring near the low. Rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are occurring near strong winds. Elsewhere, ridging extends over the basin, and the pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh E winds in the south-central through eastern Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring through the aforementioned areas, and locally rough seas in N swell are entering the NE Caribbean through Atlantic passages. In the northwestern basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh E to NE winds will prevail across the south-central through eastern Caribbean, as well as through the Atlantic Passages today. Pulsing strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of northwestern Colombia will occur this morning, and locally rough seas will be possible near these winds. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will dominate the basin this weekend as ridging builds over the Caribbean. Looking ahead, high pressure in the central Atlantic will slowly move eastward early next week and a series of cold front will move off the southeastern United States. A building pressure gradient between these features will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across much of the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a low pressure off the coast of the southeastern United States southwestward through the Florida Straits, while a surface trough is analyzed across the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Divergence aloft supports scattered moderate to strong convection east of the surface trough to 68W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge over the NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally strong E winds are noted over much of the basin, especially between 45W and 75W. Rough seas are occurring in the area described, peaking around 11 ft. Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low is centered north of the area near 31N43W and a stationary front extends from 31N36W to 17N47W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is evident ahead of the frontal boundary to within 120 NM. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are noted to the southwest of the center of the low, where peak seas of 12 to 16 ft are occurring. For the forecast W of 55W, widespread fresh to locally strong E to NE winds occurring north of 15N and east of the Bahamas will slowly diminish through tonight as high pressure in the central Atlantic weakens and drifts eastward. Rough seas in the aforementioned region will slowly subside from north to south through early Sat. A cold front extending from the Florida Straits to 31N76W will decrease in forward speed today before reaching from 31N68W to western Cuba by Sat morning, then weaken from 31N59W to central Cuba Sun morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas will occur behind the front N of 28N. Looking ahead, widespread fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will redevelop across areas north of 20N Sun night through early next week as strong high pressure builds across the region behind the weakening front. $$ ADAMS