000
AXNT20 KNHC 202120
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 01N10E and extends to
04N10W. The ITCZ continues from 04N10W to 04N51W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N and between 30W and 
40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough parallels the coast of east Mexico, moderate
convection near the northern portion of the trough axis. High 
pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Mainly
moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail across the Gulf
waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and 
moderate seas will prevail across the basin through tonight. A 
reinforcing cold front will move southeastward through the 
northern and central Gulf late tonight through this weekend. Fresh
to locally strong N winds are briefly expected along and behind 
this front in the northern Gulf late tonight. Moderate NE to E 
winds are then expected this weekend into early next week as the 
fronts weaken and a broad ridge shifts slowly eastward across the 
eastern U.S. and Gulf basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is over the far NW waters. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, dominate the Caribbean basin. 

For the forecast, an ill-defined cold front is sinking slowly 
southward across W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, 
and will promote moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across 
the western Caribbean through Sun as the front dissipates. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will dominate the rest of 
the basin through Sun as a new ridge builds over the Caribbean 
from the NW. Looking ahead, high pressure will slide slowly 
eastward across the west and then central Atlantic early next week
while a series of cold fronts move off the southeastern United 
States coast. A strengthening pressure gradient between these 
features will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across
much of the Caribbean Mon through Wed, particularly through the 
Windward Passage.


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N72W to central Cuba. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail west of the front. A small 1010 mb area of low
pressure is centered just N of the area near 32N43W. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 10-14 ft are over the discussion waters
in the southern semicircle of the low. High pressure prevails
elsewhere. Aside from the areas discussed, moderate to fresh winds
cover the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, with mainly
moderate winds S of 20N. Seas are generally in the 6-10 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, widespread fresh SE to S winds and 
moderate NE swell occurring north of 15N and east of the Bahamas 
will slowly diminish through Sat, as high pressure extending 
southwest into the region weakens and drifts eastward. An ill- 
defined cold front extending from 31N72W through the central 
Bahamas and into central Cuba along 80W will move slowly 
southeastward through the weekend, reaching from 31N67W to eastern
Cuba by Sat morning, then weaken from 31N61W to far E portions of
Cuba Sun morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas 
will occur N of 28N and behind the front tonight. Looking ahead, 
widespread fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will 
redevelop north of 20N Sun night through early next week as strong
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic and into the 
local region, behind a reinforcing cold front. 

$$
AL