000
AXNT20 KNHC 212100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Dec 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 01N09E and extends to
02N01W. The ITCZ continues from 02N01W to 04N20W to 02N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 
28W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail.  

For the forecast, high pressure over the central U.S. will shift 
slowly eastward through the middle of next week, resulting in 
moderate E to SE winds late Sun into Tue, becoming SE to S Wed and
Thu. A new cold front will approach the NW Gulf on Thu. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. 
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the 
Caribbean waters.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will 
prevail across the western half of the Caribbean through Sun as a 
weakening cold front drifts southward across the SE Bahamas and 
adjacent Atlantic this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally 
fresh trades are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean. 
High pressure will build over the eastern United States and 
western Atlantic early next week. A strengthening pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and the lingering cold front 
just N of the Caribbean will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to
E winds across much of the basin Sun night through Tue, with 
winds and seas then gradually diminishing through mid week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail west of the front. Farther east, a 1021 mb
high pressure is centered near 27N48W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and the front is supporting 
fresh to strong winds N of 29N within 120 nm E of the front, and 
gentle to moderate winds Elsewhere E of the front to 55W. Light to
gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. A 
stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N38W and 
extends SW to near 18N52W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 
22N within 180 nm east of the boundary. Fresh to locally strong 
winds are elsewhere N of 20N and E of 35W. S of 20N, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail. Seas across the discussion waters are in
the 6-10 ft range.  

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N65W to 
the central Bahamas and east-central Cuba will progress slowly 
southeastward through early next week. Farther east, a broad ridge
is drifting eastward, and will produce moderate to fresh S to SE 
winds along the W periphery of the ridge, generally north of 20N 
and east of 60W through tonight. South of 20N, moderate to briefly
fresh trades will prevail into the middle of next week. An 
inverted trough is forecast to develop east of the Bahamas Sun 
then drift westward to along the east coast of Florida by late 
Mon. A low center is likely to form near the NE Florida coast Mon 
night and shift northward. A strong high pressure ridge will shift
into the western Atlantic during this time. The tightening 
pressure gradient between the high pressure, the lingering front, 
and the trough will induce a broad swath of fresh to strong NE to 
E winds and very rough seas to the east of the Bahamas Mon 
afternoon, shifting westward across the Bahamas through Tue, then 
quickly diminish. The cold front is expected to align nearly W to 
E along about 21N by Tue night before dissipating on Wed.

$$
AL