000 AXNT20 KNHC 231743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Dec 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 05N09W and continues westward to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 00N40W where it then drops below the Equator and enters Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 15W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the basin, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Dry weather conditions are prevalent across the basin at this time. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the United States will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas through late week. Winds will increase some into the weekend over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across Haiti from NE to SW while a surface trough extends from far southwest Haiti to near 14N82W. These features combined with upper level divergence are supporting widely scattered moderate convection across much of the central and eastern Caribbean between 65W and 85W. The pressure gradient between the front, trough, and high pressure over the Atlantic and eastern US supports moderate to fresh E winds across the majority of the basin, with fresh to strong NE winds observed in the Windward Passage per recent scatterometer data. Seas of 3-6 ft are observed across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low to the south will lead to widespread moderate to fresh winds over the basin through Tue, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward passage. Winds will then relax some for the latter half of the week. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends fromn 31N53W to 22N67W, where it then becomes a stationary front that extends to the coast of Haiti. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 30N53W to the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are long and within 200 nm E of these features. Behind the front, a pair of surface troughs are analyzed, one paralleling the Florida Coast along 80W and another from 30N76W to 23N72W. The pressure gradient between all of the aforementioned features and high pressure over the eastern US supports fresh to strong E to NE winds behind the front along with moderate seas. Seas are locally 8-10 ft W of 55W and N of 22N. Farther east, a 1040 mb high NE of the Azores extends a ridge across much of the Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE-E winds north of 14N and east of 40W. This was confirmed by scatterometer data. Rough seas are found in these waters, peaking near 11 ft west of the Canary Islands. In the rest of the waters between Africa and the Lesser Antilles (south of 20N), moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front that currently extends from 28N55W to just N of the Dominican Republic will move east and exit the basin by Tue night. High pressure building behind the front will lead to increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough seas into Tue night. A surface trough off the SE United States coast may lead to fresh to strong winds offshore NE Florida early this week. $$ Adams