000
AXNT20 KNHC 232030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Dec 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 06N11W and extends to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from
05N15W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 06N between 20W and 28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is over the Gulf of Mexico. This is
resulting in gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, 
across the Gulf waters. 

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the United States 
will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas through
late week. Winds will increase some into the weekend over the 
eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE United 
States. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Caribbean waters,
reaching locally strong speeds in the Windward Passage. Seas are
mainly in the 3-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to 
the north and low to the south will lead to widespread moderate to
fresh winds over the basin into Tue night, with locally strong 
winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Winds will 
then relax some for the latter half of the week. Moderate seas 
will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and 
slight seas will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N49W to 22N67W where it becomes
stationary to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 7-9 ft prevail west of the front. Fresh to locally strong
winds are found N of 20N and E of 35W, where seas are in the 8-10
ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5 to 8
ft, prevail.  

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will move east and exit the 
basin Tue. High pressure building behind the front will lead to 
increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough 
seas expected into Tue night. A surface trough off the SE United 
States coast will likely lead to fresh to strong winds offshore NE
Florida tonight and Tue.

$$
AL