366 AXNT20 KNHC 241002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Dec 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N and between 17W and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure to the north of the basin maintains moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas. Tropical moisture is moving across the Bay of Campeche supporting scattered showers in the area. Dry weather conditions prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered over eastern United States will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas through late week. Winds will increase some into the weekend over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An active stationary front reaches the Windward Passage, followed by a surface trough that extends to near NE 16N79W. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and SW Caribbean, with the strongest convection affecting eastern Panama and the offshore waters. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding is possible across southern Central America. Drier conditions are noted in the rest of the basin. A strong ridge off New England extends southward into the Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are occurring in the central Caribbean waters, Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low to the south will lead to widespread moderate to fresh winds over the basin into Tue night, with strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Winds will then relax some for the latter half of the week. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Satellite imagery depict a 1021 mb low pressure system centered near 28N79W. A stationary front extends SW from the low to 27N82W, while a warm front is analyzed from the low to 29N73W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N46W to 24N56W, where it becomes a stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the cold front, mainly within 150 nm. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge off New England and aforementioned boundaries and low pressure sustain fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas over much of the SW North Atlantic, especially west of 60W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the strongest winds occurring a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Seas are peaking around 11 ft near 24N68W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent north of 28N and between the cold front and 70W, and also west of 77W and south of 30W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure system in the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 8-11 ft are prevalent in the area described, except for strong winds around the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move east while weakening. High pressure building behind the front will lead to increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough seas expected into Tue night. A low pres has developed off the central Florida coast near 28N79W and will lead to fresh to strong winds offshore NE Florida today. $$ ERA