000 AXNT20 KNHC 241746 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Dec 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 07N13.5W. The ITCZ extends from 07N13.5W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 07N and between the African coast and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure to the north of the basin maintains moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft. A cold front enters the basin near Fort Myers, FL, and is acting to form a larger stationary front across the northern Gulf. This developing boundary is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf near the coastal Texas-Louisiana border. Tropical moisture is interacting with a surface trough analyzed along the Mexican coast near Veracruz, supporting scattered showers in the Bay of Campeche. Dry weather conditions prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered over eastern United States will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas through late week. Winds could increase some late Fri into the weekend over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An active stationary front reaches Haiti and the Windward Passage, followed by a surface trough that extends to near 14N75W. Another surface trough is analyzed in the W Caribbean paralleling the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. To the south of these features, the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough runs across the SW Caribbean and into Colombia, with a 1010 mb low near 10N77W. The combination of these features and upper level divergence is fueling scattered moderate convection south of 18N and W of 78W with scattered showers also across much of the central Caribbean. Strong to near-gale force winds are noted in the strongest convection per recent scatterometer data. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere. A strong ridge off New England extends southward into the Caribbean waters. Fresh to strong easterly trade winds are occurring in the Windward Passage portions of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate seas prevail across much of these waters, with localized seas of 8-9 ft near the aforementioned surface low near 10N77W. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will lead to widespread moderate to fresh winds over the basin into tonight, with strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Winds will then relax some for the latter half of the week. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb surface low is analyzed near 31N80W. A warm front runs from the low east-southeastward to near 29N72W. A cold front also extends from the low south-southeastward to near 27N78W and then southwestward into the Florida coast near West Palm Beach, with a pre-frontal trough extending from the low across the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong NW winds are observed via scatterometer to the west of the low and cold front, with rough seas in this area as well. To the east of the low, the strengthening pressure gradient between the low and a ridge stemming from a 1033 mb high near 42N61W is supporting moderate to fresh SE to E winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft across much of the SW North Atlantic W of 55W. A cold front extends from 31N45W to 23N56W, where it then becomes a stationary front that extends to northern Hispaniola. A pre- frontal trough is also analyzed from 27N48W to 19N49W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and within roughly 220 NM ahead of the front. Behind the fronts, fresh to strong E to NE winds and moderate seas are observed, with localized seas of 8-10 ft occurring north of a shear line that runs from 30N43W to 27N58W to 31N67W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure system in the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are prevalent across the remainder of the basin, with recent scatterometer data indicating localized strong winds near and between the Canary Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front that currently extends from 23N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola will weaken today and dissipate by tonight. High pressure behind the front will continue to bring fresh to strong winds across the southeast Bahamas and rough seas extending eastward, lasting through tonight. Fresh winds will continue offshore northeast Florida today as a weak low pres near 30N79W moves northeastward, with winds and seas diminishing later tonight. $$ Adams