016 
AXNT20 KNHC 242050
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Africa near 08N12W and continues southwestward to 07N14W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N14W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N to 06N and between 11W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail over the
Gulf of Mexico.  

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern United 
States will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas 
through late week. Winds could increase some late Fri into Sat 
over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE 
United States. Conditions should quiet down again by Sun as high 
pressure ridging moves over the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds are over the SW Caribbean, where
seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds 
are over the central Caribbean with moderate winds over the
remainder of the Caribbean waters, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to 
the north and low pressure to the south will lead to widespread 
moderate to fresh winds over the basin into Wed night, with 
pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia and in the 
Windward Passage. Winds will then diminish only slightly for Thu 
into the weekend. Moderate seas will prevail across the central 
Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb low is centered off the coast of northern Florida near 
31N79W. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the vicinity of the 
low. A cold front extends from 31N44W to 22N59W and becomes 
stationary to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong winds are within 60 nm 
west of the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are 
elsewhere W of the front. Seas west of the front are in the 7-10 
ft range, except N of 25N between 61W and 72W, where seas of 5-7 
ft are noted. East of the frontal boundary, gentle to moderate 
winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will weaken this 
evening and dissipate overnight. High pressure behind the front 
will bring fresh to strong winds across the southeast Bahamas and
rough seas extending eastward, lasting through tonight. Fresh 
winds and rough seas offshore NE Florida associated with a 1019 
mb low pres near 31N79W will diminish tonight as the low moves 
north of the area. A cold front will move south of 31N by early 
Thu, then extend from 31N57W to central Florida Thu evening, and 
from 23N55W to 21N65W to the central Bahamas by Sat morning. Fresh
to strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to come 
in behind the front, especially for areas to the east of 70W.

$$
AL