000 AXNT20 KNHC 250556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Dec 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia close to 06N10W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 01N28W 03N35W 01N39W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward between 10W and 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front curves through the NW Bahamas, to the southernmost part of mainland Florida. A dissipating stationary front continues from the southernmost part of Florida, to 28N87W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 29N91W 23N98W eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are from 26N to 27N between 86W and 88W. Broad fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 29N90W 26N90W 22N87W eastward. Fresh SE winds have been from 24N northward from 91W westward. Surface moderate to gentle anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the coastal waters of the middle Texas Gulf coast. Mostly slight to some moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure centered over the eastern United States will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas through late week. Winds could increase some late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE United States. Conditions should quiet down again by Sun as high pressure ridging moves over the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The SW part of an Atlantic Ocean-to-Haiti/Windward Passage stationary front ends close to 17N75W. One east-to-west oriented surface trough is along 15N/16N between 81W and Belize. A second surface trough, from the NW to the SE, is between the coastal waters of Panama and the coastal waters of Nicaragua. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from the Windward Passage westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N77W near Colombia and Panama, beyond Panama and 08N84W, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 07N to 11N between 81W and 85W, in Panama and in Costa Rica, and in the nearby coastal waters of each country. Strong NE to E winds, and moderate to high seas, are in the Windward Passage. Strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet, are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, are from 14N southward between 72W and 76W. Moderate to strong NE to E winds are from 14N to 16N between 70W and 77W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from 72W eastward. One area of moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 15N southward from 80W westward with a first surface trough. A second separate area of moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 15N northward from 80W westward with a second surface trough that is off the coast of Honduras. Moderate seas are in much of the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas off the coast of SE Cuba, and off the coast of Honduras. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, are: 0.06 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will lead to widespread moderate to fresh winds over the basin into Wed night, with pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Winds will then diminish only slightly for Thu into the weekend. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 mb low pressure center is close to 30N77W. A surface trough curves away from the low pressure center, to 29N78W and 31N79W. A cold front curves away from the low pressure center, through the NW Bahamas, to the southernmost point of mainland Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are from 30N northward between 75W and 80W. A second cold front passes through 31N41W, to 25N50W 22N60W. A stationary front continues from 22N60W, to 20N70W in the coastal waters of the northern parts of the Dominican Republic, into the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE winds, and rough seas are from 26N southward between 58W and 76W. Strong NE winds, and rough seas, are from 26N northward between 43W and 64W. Fresh to strong southerly winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, are from 28N northward between 38W and 41W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east and to the southeast of the cold front from 25N northward. A N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 15N17W at the coast of Senegal, to 20N19W, beyond 31N20W. Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 29N northward from the surface trough eastward. Fresh NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from 25N to 30N between the surface trough and 26W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 26N northward between 18W and 21W. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, are: 0.01 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will lead to widespread moderate to fresh winds over the basin into Wed night, with pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Winds will then diminish only slightly for Thu into the weekend. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere. $$ mt/era